Credit crunch default rates ?
FT: “.. Holy moly. These are big global financial crisis-like — or at least dotcom-bust-like — numbers. While we haven’t spotted a time horizon for the forecast, we’ve whacked them onto this chart of historic default rates to give you a sense ..” Source: FT, Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla
BTC vs NDX gap still wide... room to mean revert if risk turns.
Source: TME, LSEG
South Korea’s KOSPI hit an all-time high
(+175% YoY), led by semiconductor giants like Samsung and SK hynix, driven by soaring chip exports (+134% YoY) fueled by global AI demand. Retail investors are shifting from crypto to domestic AI and semiconductor stocks, as the “Kimchi Premium” shrinks. Source: Bull Theory
Goldman Sachs Winner and Looser
Goldman Sachs sees AI winners in hardware, cloud, infrastructure, and security (e.g., Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft, Cloudflare), while traditional software and consulting (e.g., Salesforce, SAP, Accenture) lose as AI commoditizes code and cuts billable hours. The key: compute, power, and security beat software and platforms, reshaping the tech stack. Source: Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @MikeFritzell
The odds of a March interest rate cut have fallen to just 2%
Source: Barchart @Barchart
BREAKING Beer
Beer Shipments on track for worst year since the 1980s Source: Barchart @Barchart
Global debt is surging as governments ramp up spending on national security and economic resilience.
Nearly $29tn was added to global debt in 2025, pushing the total to a record $348tn, according to IIF. Source: IIF, HolgerZ
Disruption risk from AI, a sector point of view
The most exposed are in the high/right corner, and most of these have a negative YTD return. Source: Credit From macro to micro @Credit_Junk
