The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon.
Source: Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday and those lasted eight years on average".
THE WHITE HOUSE BASKET (aka "Don't fight Trump") is massively outperforming the S&P 500
Don't fight the Fed, or the White House Investing alongside Trump's tweets and White House moves ("White House basket") has returned about 75% since the start of his term, versus roughly 20% for the S&P 500, led by Intel and USA Rare Earths, found @psarofagis. Note: Tuttle has been trying to ETF-ize this strategy in the Government Grift ETF but no exchange will list it because it too controversial (?) Source: Eric Balchunas on X
WHEN SPACEX IPOs, THESE ARE THE STOCKS THE MARKET WILL CHASE NEX
Source: Justin Banks
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Top 10 countries by gold reserves:
Source: Wall St Engine
The United States has a long track record of outlasting its rivals. The Soviet Union collapsed.
Japan, once predicted in the 1980s to eclipse the American economy, is now significantly smaller. China now appears to be on a similar trajectory. In 2021, China’s GDP had risen to 76% of that of the United States, and many analysts believed it would surpass the U.S. before 2030. That expectation has since unraveled. By 2024, the U.S. economy stood at $29.2 trillion compared to China’s $18.9 trillion—a gap that has widened for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, China’s working-age population is declining, its fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0—well below replacement level—and there is little immigration to offset the demographic decline. Yet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing. Source: Martin Varsavsky
Betting odds of 1/2 on Starmer leaving office this year
Is the Gilt market facing another crisis? Source: Winston Smith
The power of the AI trade...
While Taiwan’s $977 billion economy is less than a quarter of the UK’s $4.3 trillion, last week Taiwan overtook the UK in stock market capitalization at $4.14 trillion, making it the world’s seventh largest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg showing the combined value of companies with a primary listing on the island. The UK’s market was valued at around $4.09 trillion. Source: Bloomberg, Neil Sethi
