As shown on the chart below, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and bitcoin look like twins...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin is experiencing severe sell-off pressure, with one of the worst days of the decade similar to past crisis moments (COVID crash, Terra Luna, FTX).
BTC is extremely oversold: daily RSI hit 16 and weekly RSI fell below 30 for only the 4th time ever. Historically, buying at these levels and holding for one year has delivered strong returns (+112% in 2015, +136% in 2019, +26% in 2022). Source: Trendspider
Big Tech is spending massively in AI as they all want to win the "AI war".
The combined 2026 capex for the Mag 7 now totals $655 BILLION. To put things in perspective, the German government special infrastructure fund is totalling €500 billion OVER 12 YEARS... ‼️ Source: The AI Investor
The End of the Buyback Era?
Mega-cap tech in the S&P 500 is undergoing a major shift. Before: buybacks exceeded CapEx, supporting valuation multiples. Now: CapEx exceeds buybacks, driven by the AI arms race.
Shares of automaker Stellantis plunged 23% in European trading on Friday
The company said it expects to take a 22-billion-euro ($26 billion) hit from a business reset and hinted at a pull-back from its electrification push. After Ford and General Motors announced large write-downs linked to their EV strategy, today Stellantis has announced it will take ~€22 billion ($26 billion) in impairments as it scales back its EV plans. With a brutal admission by the CEO ⬇️ Source: Javier Blas
The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling.
These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning". Source: Glassnode
US companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009
according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc Source: Bloomberg
To put things in perspective...
The Amazon $AMZN CAPEX estimates ($200B for 2026) aren’t even on the screen on the Bloomberg GF page yet… Source: Bloomberg, RBC
