Treasury Secretary Bessent has outlined a stark economic strategy: storage at Kharg Island is expected to reach capacity within days, potentially forcing Iran to halt oil production.
He describes the campaign as “Economic Fury,” warning that any individual or vessel involved in these shipments could face U.S. sanctions. This marks one of the most aggressive economic threats in the conflict so far. Unlike flipping a switch, shutting down oil wells is a complex process. Restarting them can take months and cost billions—and in some cases, production never fully returns. In essence, Bessent is signaling a strategy aimed at inflicting long-term damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure without the use of military force.
Don Tzu has dropped another quote.
Source: TT3
SocGen notes that Tech has one of the lowest PEGs..
Source. SocGen
Avis Budget Group ($CAR) could experience another extreme short squeeze similar to 2021, when the stock surged 722% in 41 days before collapsing 54% in a week.
Fast forward to 2026 and $CAR - Avis Budget - is up 656% in a month!!! The US government shut down. Airport security workers stopped getting paid. Thousands quit. 4-hour queues. Passengers abandoned flights. Road trips surged. Add a massive short squeeze and you get a 600% move. So what's going on? ---------- In 2021, the surge was driven not by fundamentals but by market positioning. At the time, Avis was heavily shorted because many investors viewed it as weaker than Hertz—citing valuation concerns, exposure to used car price volatility, and a less attractive balance sheet. Meanwhile, a popular hedge fund strategy involved a pair trade: long Hertz (fresh out of bankruptcy with an EV narrative) and short Avis. This created a crowded short position. The situation reversed when Avis delivered a strong earnings surprise and broader industry news (including Hertz-related developments) disrupted expectations. As the stock price rose, short sellers faced mounting losses, margin pressure, and forced liquidations. Since closing a short requires buying the stock, this triggered a feedback loop: rising prices forced more short covering, which pushed prices even higher. This self-reinforcing cycle—not fundamentals—drove the explosive rally. Once most shorts had exited and buying pressure faded, the stock rapidly collapsed. Today’s conditions—crowded positioning, limited float, and market structure—mirror that setup. If similar dynamics unfold, prices could again detach from fundamentals and rise sharply due to forced buying rather than intrinsic value. Source: Bull Theory
The Pentagon just proposed the largest defense budget in U.S. history at $1.5T or +42% in one year.
• $65.8T (warships & support ships) - Largest shipbuilding program since Kennedy. • $54.6T (autonomous warfare) • $6.1T (next-gen B-21 bomber) • 85 F-35 jets • 18 battle force ships • 16 non-battle force ships • Golden Dome missile defense • 12 critical munitions restocked • critical minerals supply chain investment Record drone investment. 44,000 new troops. The Iran war costs are not included. That’s a separate bill. America is no longer preparing for a war. It’s preparing for wars (with a "s")👁️ Source: Visual capitalist, Voronoi
LPs are rotating.
Infrastructure and liquidity solutions (secondaries, opportunistic) are in. Software, buyouts and direct lending are out. Source: Illiquid Insights
The Psychedelics ETF $PSIL has destroyed its daily volume record in first 30min of trading...
Why ??? Trump just signed ex order expediting research/access to psyche drugs to cure depression. The sector has been in dog house, waiting for catalyst, up 10% today. Watch this space. Source: Eric Balchunas
For anyone wondering whether the fossil fuel crisis in the Middle East is driving interest in clean energy technologies:
China's exports of batteries, EVs and solar products shot up in March to $21.9 billion! This is an all-time record and a 70% increase over March 2025. Source: Nicolas Fulghum
