Syz the moment

By prematurely cutting rates by 50 bps ahead of the election, even with inflation still running above target, the Fed has set the stage for an inflationary resurgence. The latest October inflation data released yesterday confirmed the trend, with PPI coming in at 2.4%, hotter than the expected 2.3% Meanwhile, core PPI rose to 3.1%, ahead of the expected 3.0% increase The bond market starts to price in this risk, with 10-year Treasury yields up nearly 70 bps since the Fed's began cutting overnight rates in September Rising borrowing costs will become a major headwind for Trump's pro-growth, and likely pro-inflationary, fiscal policies. And it could soon become a major problem for equity investors paying a near record high 28x (TTM) earnings in today's stock market. Source: Porter Stansberry @porterstansb on X, Marketwise,T

☢ S&P 500 earnings yield FELL below the 10-year Treasury yield for the 1st time in 22 YEARS. ❗In other words, less risky (theoretically) 10-year Treasury is paying MORE than the S&P 500. ⚠This could imply lower than average forward returns for S&P 500. Source: The Daily Shot, Global Markets Investor

Bitcoin $BTC relative to gold $XAU has broken out brutally.

It already has the highest tax burden in Europe, and there are no real structural reforms on the horizon. Source: Michel A.Arouet

US budget deficit hit a STAGGERING $257.5 BILLION in October. This is up nearly 400% year-over-year versus $66.6 BILLION last year. This was also the 2nd highest deficit in the entire United States history. Mind-blowing numbers. Source: Global Markets Investor, zerohedge

Here’s the link to the full study: https://lnkd.in/ewsGnfSV Key Findings - Total Funding: The top 50 AI companies raised $52.8B as of 2024, with a 600% surge in 2023 to $20.7B compared to 2020. - Total Valuation: The collective valuation stands at $358.37B, indicating strong market confidence. - Top Funded Sector: AI Infrastructure & Models led with $35.5B (67% of total), followed by Data & Analytics ($5.9B) and Defense & Security ($3.8B). - Geographic Insights: U.S.-based companies raised $49.4B (94% of total), followed by France with $1.3B. California attracted $47.9B, making it the leading AI hub. - Google Alumni Influence: Ex-Google employees led 14 companies, raising $14.7B (28% of total), with a combined valuation of $71.61B. - Most Funded Startups: OpenAI ($21.9B), Anthropic ($9.7B), and Databricks ($4B). - Top Unicorns: OpenAI ($157B), Databricks ($43B), and Anthropic ($40B). Among the top 50 companies, 29 are unicorns. - Notable CEOs: Sam Altman (OpenAI), Ali Ghodsi (Databricks), and Dario Amodei (Anthropic).

Source: SG

Are they going to throw the towel on the 2% target? Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald