🌍 The IEA just dropped a bombshell:
If the world stays on its current path, oil and gas demand will keep rising for the next 25 years. That’s right — no peak this decade, no major drop in CO₂ emissions, and likely no chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. 🔥 2024 was the hottest year on record. Yet the International Energy Agency says “climate change is rapidly declining on the global energy agenda.” Why? Governments are prioritizing energy security and affordability over climate goals. Growth of electric vehicles is slowing. Demand for energy from AI, air conditioners, and manufacturing is exploding. 📈 Under the IEA’s new “Current Policies” scenario: Oil demand grows from 100M → 113M barrels/day by 2050 EV adoption plateaus around 40% by 2035 Gas demand continues to climb Coal finally peaks — but still lingers 💡 Even so, renewables will shoulder most of the new electricity demand — especially in India, SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. ⚠️ Translation: The clean energy revolution is real… …but fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere unless policies change fast. Source: FT
The index is derived from state-level employment, wage, and unemployment data, capturing how many U.S. states experience significant labour-market deterioration at any given time.
About $1.5T may come from investment-grade bonds, plus $150B from leveraged finance and up to $40B a year in data-center securitizations. Even then, there’s still roughly a $1.4T funding gap likely filled by private credit and governments. Source: Wall St Engine
And the winner of the power demand is .... Coal !
Source: Bloomberg, @AzizSapphire
Warren Buffett talking to Peter Lynch:
Source: Brian Feroldi
More "crockroaches" in private credit land.
Last week, lending giant BlackRock wrote down a private loan made to home improvement company Renovo Home Partners to zero. As recently as last month, BlackRock valued the loan at 100 cents on the dollar. The drastic revision comes as Dallas-based Renovo — a roll-up of regional kitchen and bathroom remodeling businesses created by private equity firm Audax Group in 2022 — abruptly filed for bankruptcy last week, indicating it plans to shut down. BlackRock held the majority of Renovo’s roughly $150 million of private debt, while Apollo Global Management Inc.’s MidCap Financial and Oaktree Capital Management held smaller chunks, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing a private transaction…” When one of America’s largest, most sophisticated lenders takes a 100% loss on a loan over the course of one month, it begs the question: what other "cockroaches" are hiding in the shadows? Source: Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks
The 🇺🇸 Senate just passed a bill to fund the government and end the longest shutdown in U.S. history
The bill which passed 60-40 will now be sent to the House of Representatives ... If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to President Donald Trump to be signed into law - CNBC, Evan
Michael Burry has said that Oracle, $ORCL, and Meta, $META, could overstate earnings by 26.9% and 20.8%.
He adds: "It gets worse." Source: unusual_whales @unusual_whales
📈 China’s Broad Money Supply Surpasses Combined U.S. and EU Since 2023
China’s broad money supply (M2) reached $39.7 trillion in September 2023, surpassing for the first time the combined total of the United States and the European Union ($39.6 trillion). By September 2025, China’s M2 had expanded further to $47.1 trillion—5.9% higher than the combined $44.5 trillion of the U.S. ($22.2 trillion) and EU ($22.3 trillion). This reflects the continued rapid expansion of China’s financial system and credit base relative to Western economies. Source: Econovis
