Short Squeeze Risks Rising?
“…Goldman Sachs’ trading desks argue that the core tension in today’s market is not about the strength or weakness of fundamentals, but rather the excessive accumulation of short positions, which—if triggered into covering—could unleash a self-reinforcing upward spiral…” Source: kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2
The Iran war is accelerating the rise of the Chinese yuan in global trade:
China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has grown rapidly, with daily transactions rising from about 300 billion yuan in 2021 to a record 920 billion yuan in March 2026, briefly peaking at 1.22 trillion yuan in April. Created in 2015 as an alternative to Western payment networks, CIPS is increasingly used by sanctioned countries like Russia and Iran for energy trade. Saudi Arabia is also expanding renminbi-based oil transactions with China, boosting “petroyuan” speculation, though the US dollar still dominates global oil trade.
The decline in the number of public companies has been driven by the disappearance of small companies.
Source: @a16z, (((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook
Immune SPX?
The gap between SPX and inverse MOVE remains enormous. Equities keep trading as if the recent explosion in bond volatility is somebody else’s problem. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace Activate to view larger image,
The entry point for this top-eight list moved from $30B in 2011 to $188B in 2026
Source: InvestyWise by Groww
Japan's Core Inflation Hits Four-Year Low of 1.4% in April
Core inflation, excluding fresh food but including energy, rose 1.4% year-on-year, down from 1.8% in March and below the 1.7% forecast, driven by government subsidies on fuel and school tuition. This marks the third straight month below the BOJ's 2% target—the slowest since March 2022—and follows the bank's April rate hike to 0.75%, its highest since 1995. Free school lunches played a role, but a slowing was widespread. Full impact of War yet to be felt but the deceleration in inflation should keep BoJ gradual in hiking. Markets saw a milder yen and bond support, though analysts predict a rebound as subsidies fade and Middle East tensions lift fuel costs. Source: Bloomberg
Hedge funds are shorting the US stock market at the highest level since 2021.
Short exposure to US equity index and ETF products just hit 13% of total gross exposure. It is nearly double where it was before COVID and the highest reading in 5 years. The S&P 500 is near all time highs. Bond yields are at 2007 levels. And Japan's bond market is cracking. Korean retail investors are borrowing record amounts to chase stocks higher. Retail is buying and Hedge funds are shorting. One of them is about to be very wrong. Chart: Bull Theory on X
What is happening in China?
Car retail sales plunged -15% YoY in April, the steepest decline since mid-2022, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. Home appliance and furniture purchases fell at a double-digit pace, while gold, silver, and jewelry sales collapsed -21% YoY. Overall retail sales rose just +0.2% YoY in April, the weakest reading since December 2022, while fixed-asset investment fell -1.6% in the first 4 months of 2026, returning to contraction. The April data suggest GDP could expand as little as +4.1% YoY in Q2 2026, which would represent a significant miss of Beijing's official growth target of 4.5% to 5% China's economy is struggling. Source: Global Markets Investor
