+1300% in a year, easy to think the move is done.
But as Bloomberg highlights, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) reflects deeper forces. Even before the conflict: - Aging fleet - Tight capacity - Sanctions limiting supply ➡️ The war accelerated existing trends. Now the question isn’t how far it’s gone, but what’s changed. Structural tightness remains: - Longer, more complex trade routes - Sourcing shifting farther away - Rising demand for shipping capacity ➡️ That’s why gains may not fully unwind, even with peace. As John K. notes: the story may shift from war-driven to fundamentally driven. The fundamentals still point to persistence. Source. Bloomberg
The oil shock's impact on global inflation is likely to be temporary and short-lived.
Source: Bloomberg
Google searches for "price of oil" just hit a record high: 300% above the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war peak and the 2008 financial crisis combined.
20 years of data. Every war, every crash, every crisis... all dwarfed by a single vertical line in 2026. The whole world is watching the pump. Source: Arbor Research, Mario Nawfal on X
Weekend negotiations in one cartoon
Source: Guy Venables
Reminder water depths are critical and why there are only narrow shipping lanes thru Strait of Hormuz for fully laden tankers.
There is no way to avoid the the narrow gap for loaded tankers. Source: Dan Tsubouchi
This chart says it all: US tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x Forward P/E in weeks.
Tech valuations are now LOWER than they were when ChatGPT was announced. As the Iran War drives markets lower, AI is only getting bigger. A buying opportunity? Source: Apollo, The Kobeissi Letter
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
Source: Alex Christoforou
The idea of gold as a global “VIX hedge” doesn’t hold up. During the latest volatility spike, it moved in the opposite direction.
Source: The Market Ear
