Trump accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Six hours ago Trump warned Iran to stop charging fees to tankers or face consequences. 1 hour later he escalated, saying "that is not the agreement we have." Source: TS
Headline relief is not the same as physical normalization.
2-week ceasefire announced. Brent dropped $13 instantly. But the market is missing the real bottleneck: 172M barrels still sitting on 187 tankers in the Gulf Those cargoes must unload first — that alone could take 14+ days Qatar LNG may not restart for 2+ weeks And even then, will tankers actually enter? Iran still controls the process Saudi + UAE still have ~4M b/d shut in UBS expects only a gradual resumption through Q2 2026. A ceasefire does not equal an open Hormuz. A ceasefire does not equal restored supply. The physical dislocation is still there. Source: UBS, Qasem Al-Ali
North Sea crude prices for immediate delivery continue to highlight mounting stress in the physical market
While headlines focus on futures, the real stress is building in the physical market. North Sea crude for immediate delivery is surging as European and Asian refiners scramble to replace barrels lost during the month-long Strait of Hormuz blockade. And the key signal? Dated Brent—the benchmark for physical cargoes—is telling a very different story than futures. Dated Brent jumped 7% to $132 June Brent futures are still sitting around $95 That’s not just a gap. That’s a massive dislocation between real supply and paper pricing. Meanwhile, the squeeze is getting worse: Forties Blend—another spot market indicator—traded near $147/barrel Translation: The barrels you can get today are becoming dramatically more expensive than what the market thinks oil should cost tomorrow. Why this matters: When physical markets decouple from futures like this, it often signals: Immediate supply shortages Panic buying from refiners And potential repricing across the entire energy complex Bottom line: Are Physical prices already telling us what futures haven’t caught up to yet??? Source: Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.0% in February which was before the start of the Iran war.
That was the 60th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut this month and one could make a strong case for a rate hike as inflation rates are about to spike higher. Source: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 YTD total return: +0.0%
After all that ... it’s like nothing ever happened. Source: Charlie Bilello
Meanwhile... Software has continued to lag semiconductors, w/the software-vs-semis trade down another 7.5%.
That brings the weekly decline to 18%, as both sides of the trade moved further apart, pushing the pair to a fresh all-time low. Source: HolgerZ. Bloomberg
BESSENT SUMMONED WALL STREET CEOS TO DISCUSS ANTHROPIC’S MYTHOS
Claude Mythos is Anthropic's newest and most powerful AI model, announced just this week. It is described as "by far the most powerful AI model" Anthropic has ever developed — a step above even the Opus tier models, representing an entirely new tier of capability. Anthropic has deemed the model too dangerous for broad public release due to its extraordinary cybersecurity capabilities. It is currently only available to a select group of partners. Claude Mythos is apparently so good that Bessent and J. Powell summoned the bulge bank CEOs in a meeting to make sure they’re aware of how good Claude Mythos really is. Execs summoned include include $C Jane Fraser, $MS Ted Pick, $BAC Brian Moynihan, $WFC Charlie Scharf, and $GS David Solomon. Jamie Dimon $JPM couldn’t make it. More specifically, the meeting was about Mythos’s offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. Source: Negligible Capital
US debt balance credit cards
Source: TradingView
