In Trump's first term, there was no discernible rise in inflation or drag on growth. Why?
👉 The answer lies in what economists call "currency offset." The dollar moved up by almost the exact amount as the tariffs did. After-tariff USD import prices didn't move. ➡️ Could we see something similar during Trump 2nd term? As mentioned by Lawrence McDonald on X, the context is different this time: Tariffs and inflation during Trump's first term - were after a long period of - a) global austerity, b) secular stagnation and c) Brexit's impact on the global economy. Tariffs and Inflation during Trump's 2nd term are taking place after a $16T fiscal and monetary overdosing... Source. Lawrence McDonald on X, Stephen Miran
Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments
Source: Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart, Bloomberg
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 2.8% in February & remains well above their 2% target that has yet to be achieved.
Here are the details 👇 YoY Growth: PCE (Feb), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.5%) Core PCE, 2.8% Vs. 2.7% Est. (prev. 2.6%) MoM Growth: PCE (Feb), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.4% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) ➡️ The market is expecting the Fed to hold rates steady again at their next meeting on May 7 (at 4.25-4.50%). Source: Charlie Bilello
Base on base in silver...
Source: J-C Parets
The median household income necessary to purchase the median priced home for sale in the US ($124k) is now 57% higher than the current median household income ($79k).
This is the most unaffordable housing market in history. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
‼️Gold shipments to the US are SKYROCKETING:
Swiss gold exports to the US hit a record 404 metric tons over the last 3 months. Gold stockpiles on the Comex hit a record 42.6 million ounces on Tuesday, almost DOUBLE the inventory at the end of 2024. Rush for gold is real. Source: Global Markets Investor
This is a very important chart.
Leveraged loans have already broken down. Will junk bonds start to roll over as well? Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Japan | Tokyo inflation exceeds forecasts, keeping BOJ on rate hike path
- Bloomberg
