Syz the moment

“.. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that China is acting somewhat out of desperation given the severity of the declines shown in the charts below.” [Cembalest] This is very close to our thesis >>> We view this stimulus package as an emergency policy adjustment designed to halt the downward trend, NOT to engineer a higher level of economic growth going forward. The package addresses short-term risks, but medium- and long-term challenges remain: Unfavorable demographic dynamics Households’ sentiment has been hit hard in the past four years and will need time to recover durably, a necessary condition for higher domestic consumption Business and investors’ sentiment has equally been damaged by the succession of regulatory crackdowns and anti-bribery campaigns. The latest announcements are an encouraging sign for domestic and foreign equity investors, but only a small first step in rebuilding the confidence toward Chinese listed companies. Trade barriers have already increased for China’s exports to the US and Europe and this trend is unlikely to reverse, especially if Donald Trump is elected Source: Carl Quintanilla on X

But we are well aware of the tail risk (hard landing and no landing). As a remainder, in 2007, Yellen talked about a soft landing 6 weeks before the recession began...

Some amazing statistics for the sp500 Q3 performance as highlighted by Grant Hawkridge on X 👉 S&P 500 closed Q3 at 5.4% 👉The average stock in Q3 was 9.2% 👉394 stocks were positive in Q3 👉109 stocks were negative in Q3 👉337 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in Q3 These are the things you tend to see during bull markets...

Source: Trend Spider

Is a big bank in troubles ??? Source: JustDario on X

Officials now expect stagnation at best, down from the previously projected 0.3%. This new forecast is even below consensus of +0.1%. As a result, Germany is falling further. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Source: UBS

That is the highest growth rate in two years. Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa