Is buying the dip still the best strategy? The average return when buying the dip in the S&P 500 varies based on timeframe.
Within 6 months of buying a -10% decline, the average return has been +13% compared to a +4% return when holding stocks through the pullback and recovery. Within 12 months, the "buy the dip" strategy has returned a +22% gain, beating a +5% return with the buy and hold strategy. On the other hand, buying dips over a 5-year period has returned +33%, well below a +75% from simply holding. In other words, buying the dip has been a successful strategy during periods of market volatility.
Bitcoin (+43%) and Gold (+25%) are the top performing major assets in 2024. We've never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year.
Source: Charlie Bilello
FED WILL CUT RATES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE 1ST TIME IN 4.5 YEARS Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession
If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. Key caveat is, that we will know if there was a recession a few months after the cut. Source: Global Markets Investor
A "timely" Time magazine cover page...
(published on 9/11)
Market pricing now suggests a 50bps cut from the Fed is now base case (nearly 70% probability)
Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles
A tweet by Mario Nawfal on X: "TRUMP'S GOLF OUTING WAS SPONTANEOUS, RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT SUSPECT'S TIMING
In a significant development, CNN reports that Trump's golf game on Sunday was an impromptu decision. According to two sources familiar with the matter, the outing was a last-minute addition to Trump's schedule, which originally had no public events planned for the day. This revelation adds a puzzling layer to the alleged assassination attempt. It raises critical questions about how the suspect, identified by as Ryan Wesley Routh, could have known Trump would be on the course at that specific time. The spontaneous nature of Trump's golf outing contradicts earlier speculations about the suspect's "high degree of planning," as suggested by former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Source: CNN, Mario Nawfal
Saud Central Bank Secretly Bought 160 Tonnes Of Gold In Switzerland - www.zerohedge.com.
According to Jan Nieuwenhuijs via Money Metals (and published on zerohedge), the Saudis have joined other Asian countries in ditching their long-term sensitivity to the gold price. Evidence suggests the Saudi central bank has been covertly buying 160 tonnes of gold in Switzerland since early 2022, contributing to the current gold bull market.
This is a big week for central bank decisions! We've got the fed, PBoC, boe, boJ and many more!
Source: Bloomberg
