How's the most bullish part of the cycle treating you so far?
The 3rd year of the 4-year presidential cycle is historically the most bullish for US stocks. Here's how the S&P 500 ha sbeen trading so far during this 4-year cycle. Source: J-C Parets
Global stocks and bonds are moving in sync like never before
The 120-day rolling correlation has reached the highest in data going back to 1998. Source: Bloomberg
Central Banks Gold Reserves
Breakdown of global central bank gold reserves shows U.S. way out in front in terms of nominal reserves; yet, as % of total reserves, France and Germany are catching up. Source: Arbor Research
Fed's deleveraging continues
Total assets have shrank another €19.5bn past week. Since start of QT, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk ONLY by $476bn. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US
More companies are mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US. Still a limited amount, but now approaching 2019 levels. These figures would be consistent with 100k Non-Farm Payrolls ahead. The labor market is weakening, and if it doesn't the Fed will push until it does. Source: MacroAlf
A good news for S&P 500 margins? CPI is now above PPI
Finally, PPI is below CPI - this is welcome news for the S&P 500 margin outlook. Source: Bloomberg, Gina Martins Adams
US, China and EU GDP over time
Source: Bloomberg
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut.
Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. Source: Bison interests
