Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month – most since 2009
Before the report, the BLS’s initial payrolls figures indicated employers added 2.9mln total jobs in the period, or an avg of 242k per month. Now the monthly pace is more likely to be ~174k, still a healthy rate of hiring but a moderation from post-pandemic peak At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less than initially reported. => The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. This should allow the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, CNBC
BlackRock’s support for shareholder proposals on environmental and social issues has hit a new low in the 2023-24 proxy season
Source: FT
Record Short Position in 10-Year Treasuries
A short squeeze ahead? Hedge Funds have now built the largest 10-Year Treasury Future Equivalents short position in history. Note that Asset managers (long-only) have the opposite as they have built record long positions. Source: Barchart
The U.S. economy is now almost entirely driven by the services sector
The services industry now accounts for ~72% of US GDP, up from ~60% in 1990. By comparison, in the 1950s, services reflected just 47% of the US economy. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector's share in US GDP has declined from ~27% in the 1950s to ~10% currently. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index has shrunk in 20 of the last 21 months, marking 22 months without two consecutive readings of an expansion, the longest streak since the 1990s. Services are keeping the US economy alive. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
EBITDA is NOT Free Cash Flow
Source: Brian Feroldi
Top 10 biggest companies in 2024 vs. 2009: What a difference 15 years can make...
Source: Stocktwits, Yahoo Finance
The US Treasury has become a key driver of stocks and other asset markets through its pro-cyclical issuance of debt and the increasing depth and liquidity of repo markets
Writes net treasury issuance leads global equity prices by about 6-9mths due to repo markets. The rise in the volume of collateralized lending, i.e. repo, facilitated by the increase in the supply of USTs is increasingly influential for the behavior of asset prices. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
While Europe is deindustrializing, US industrial renaissance is in full swing
17% annual return anyone? Source: Michel A.Arouet, BofA
