Prediction markets imply markedly higher odds of a Trump presidency than a Biden presidency ahead of next week's first presidential debate
w/the probability of a Republication sweep (42%) almost twice the odds of a Democratic sweep (22%). Source: GS thru HolgerZ
History shows an average 25% increase in volatility from July-Nov of election years...
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, BofA
The Citi US economic surprise index has fallen to about the most negative since 2022
h/t @daniburgz, Liz Abramowitz, Bloomberg
Large tech stocks just keep getting bigger: The S&P 500 Equal Weight index relative to the S&P 500 is now at its lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis
This ratio has accelerated as the S&P 500 has rallied by 14% year-to-date while the equal-weight by just 5%. The disconnect has been driven by the 5 largest stocks which have seen a 32% gain combined this year. Since January 2023, the S&P 500 is up a massive 41% while the equal-weight index is up just 16%. At the same time, Russell 2000 Equal Weight is nearly flat, up just ~3%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, The Daily Shot
U.S. household stock allocation has reached an all-time high
Source: NDR_Research
The 3 Elements of Nalanda's investment strategy
1. Avoid Big Risks 2. Buy High Quality at a Fair Price 3. Don't Be Lazy; Be Very Lazy Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
Reverse Repo has been falling off a cliff... Going from +$2300 billion to under $400 billion in just 1.5 years
Source: Game of Trades
Which commodities protect against different inflation shocks? Goldman regards GOLD as a decent hedge
Source: Goldman Sachs, Ronnie Stoeferle
