The SNB has lowered its key rate again today, to 1.25%, after the previous 25bp cut decided in March
The view by our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud: • Going forward, we believe that the SNB is now done with the recalibration of its monetary policy and that it shouldn’t cut rate further this year. • Swiss monetary policy can now be deemed as “neutral” for inflation and economic activity, as the real short term rate is close to 0% (actually just below with a cash rate of 1.25% and an inflation rate of 1.4%). • Provided growth remains on a gradual upward trend toward potential in 2025 (1.5%) and there is no unexpected development on the inflation front, there will be no reason for the SNB to lower further the CHF short term rate. • Should European or global developments trigger volatility and upward pressures on the CHF, we believe the SNB would rather resort to interventions on the FX market to manage the impact on the economy, rather than use the interest rate lever.
Is AI taking jobs away from Software Developers? 🤔
Source: Barchart
For nearly a decade, this group traded in a very narrow price-to-sales range, but it's different this time???
Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
The market cap of technology stocks as a percentage of the S&P 500 just hit a record 44%
This percentage is now ~12% higher than after the 2000 Dot-com bubble peak of 32%. Over the last 10 years, this share has more than DOUBLED. Also, since 2014 Nasdaq 100 has added 426% compared to a 182% gain in the S&P 500. Are tech stocks set to account for the majority of the S&P 500? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The best performing stocks in the SP500 this year...
Source: Charlie Bilello
As per The Kobeisi Letter >>> The S&P 500 is now up 34% in under 8 MONTHS
Since the October 2023 low, the S&P 500 has added 1,370 points or $11.5 TRILLION in market cap. In other words, the S&P 500 has added ~$1.4 trillion in market cap PER MONTH for the last 8 months in a row. This means that the S&P 500's return since October 2023 is now 3 times the average annual return. Nvidia stock alone, $NVDA, has added $2.2 trillion in market cap over this time period. That's ~20% of the S&P 500's market cap gains coming from just one stock...
Mag7 stocks have added $2.3 trillion in market cap in Q2 so far... while the 493 other stocks in the S&P 500 have lost $720 billion...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The market cap-weighted SP500 is outperforming equal weight index by over 10% this year, following 12% outperformance in 2023
Since 1971, we've never seen consecutive years with >10% outperformance. Source: Charlie Bilello
