Easing US inflation in June👏
✅Headline PCE prices: 0.1% m/m ✅Core PCE prices: +0.2% m/m 🎯Moving toward Fed's 2% target: ⤵️Headline inflation -0.1pt to 2.5% yoy, IN-LINE with expectations. This is the lowest level since February '21 and down from 7.2% two years ago... ↔️Core inflation is flat at 2.6% yoy, at the lowest level since March '21. This is slightly above expectations (2.5%), which is not such a big surprise as PCE data from yesterday's GDP report revealed a similar picture. Source: Gregory Daco, BEA, EY-Parthenon
'It is a misconception that commodities fall in a recession - on average they rally through one.'
Source: Bloomberg
FUN FACTS >>> Usain Bolt The "Chicken McNuggets" diet In 2008, Usain Bolt won gold in 100m (9.69 secs) and 200m (19.30 secs) at the Beijing Olympics while only eating McDonald’s.
He didn’t want to take risks on food, so Bolt had 100 Chicken McNuggets a day during his 10-day stay in the country (1000 nuggets total). "I should have gotten a gold medal for all that chowing down," Bolt wrote in his biography Faster than Lightning. Source: Trung Phan on X
CHINA 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO A FRESH RECORD LOW
So, what is the Chinese bond market signaling about the Chinese economy? Source: Bianco research
Russell 2000 Outperformance vs S&P 500 continues.
RTY vs SPX break out is at its widest levels since Feb 2000, > +9% MTD Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
JUST IN 🚨: There is now a 100% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut by September, according to CME FedWatch
Source: Barchart
Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in AT LEAST a decade 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Barchart
Is there more drawdown ahead for the S&P500?
Over the last ~100 years, median year has a SPX peak to trough drawdown of 13%. Believe it or not current drawdown has only been 5%... Source: GS
