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10 Jan 2023

Microsoft is in talks to acquire a 49% stake in ChatGPT owner OpenAI

OpenAI is currently raising funds at a $29 billion valuation and is allowing employees along with early investors to sell their shares at that valuation. Microsoft has already invested $1bn into the company in 2019 and is now looking to invest another $10B into OpenAI. Microsoft would receive 75% of OpenAI’s income until it has recovered its initial investment. Once they hit that threshold, they would have a 49% stake in OpenAI, with other investors taking another 49% and OpenAI's nonprofit parent getting 2%. Open AI are expected to generate ~1 Billion in revenue in 2024. Source: Finimize Image: The first day of OpenAI, 7 years ago (by Sam Altman)

10 Jan 2023

What is the US real footprint?

US is punching well above its weight, Ruchir Sharma says. US stock market value has reached 60% of global total, which is 15% higher than its long-term average. But the US real footprint much smaller: ~50% of corpate earnings, 25% of world GDP, 1/5th of listed companies and 4% of global population. Source: FT, HolgerZ

9 Jan 2023

A death cross is looming on the dollar

The dollar continued sliding today, now at its lowest since June 2022 (and a death cross is looming). Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com

9 Jan 2023

Recession hasn't been discounted by the stock market

Historically, the ERP (Equity Risk Premium) rises materially when a recession arises. So don't assume it is priced. Source: Morgan Stanley

9 Jan 2023

Biggest Junk-Bond ETF Draws Most Cash Since 2020 as Debt Rallies

HYG ETF attracted $1.7 billion of inflows amid cross-asset rally Source: Bloomberg

9 Jan 2023

Japan vs. US from the lens of Earnings Yield minus 2-year Bond Yield

Using Earnings Yield minus 2-year Bond Yield, Japan equities are massively undervalued vs. the US. Yet Japan is under-owned by international investors and under-represented in the World equity index. Source chart: Jeff Weniger

9 Jan 2023

The world's biggest bull market?

According to Goldman's prime book, the crowd has been very busy loading up on Chinese equities and selling US stocks (mainly driven by short sales). Meanwhile, the CSI 300 extended the move higher this morning, closing at the highest levels since mid September. On a side not, the Kraneshares China ETF (KWEB) is up approx 100% from October lows... Source: GS, Bloomberg, The Market Ear

9 Jan 2023

Country distribution of top 500 companies by market cap. All EU countries consolidated together.

Source: chartbear

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