Bond market in Germany sounds the recession alarm
German bond curve – measured by 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in 30yrs. Typically, 10 year bonds pay investors more than 2 year to compensate for uncertainty that future holds. The anomaly often precedes a recession. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Bitcoin Miners have Stopped Selling and Started Buying
Source: Bitcoin news, Glassnode
China Jet Fuel Demand Set To Soar Ahead Of Lunar New Year
China's oil demand could surge as it reopens after scraping zero Covid restrictions. Beijing's Covid curbs weighed on crude and refined products demand for three years. Soaring air travel demand ahead of the Lunar New Year is yet more evidence fuel demand is gathering steam. China's easing of border restrictions imposed almost three years ago has been a recent boon for air travel, domestically and internationally. There are no more mandatory quarantines for travelers arriving in China. BloombergNEF said jet fuel demand is rising in China ahead of the holidays. They noted that scheduled passenger flights for Jan 10 to 16 indicate jet fuel demand has reached about 0.61 million barrels per day (mbpd), rising 0.10 mbpd compared with a week earlier. Then by next week, jet fuel demand could increase to 0.72 mbpd. This would mark the highest demand for Chinese jet fuel in more than 1.5 years. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Recession risk - Bloomberg’s monthly global growth tracker drops to 0.1%
Bloomberg Economics Global GDP Tracker Source: Bloomberg TV
Global Supply Chain Stress is easing
Source: Bloomberg
Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate..
-Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Mar 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... Source: Charlie Bilello
Global Venture Capital investment in digital asset start-ups
Crypto venture investments dips further post-FTX collapse Source: Bloomberg
Another sign of economic growth softening in the US?
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to Second-Weakest Since 2013 - Bloomberg
