China reports Q2 GDP miss, fueling calls for more stimulus
China said Monday that 2nd quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations (+7.3%). This marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. Retail sales for June rose by 3.1%, a touch below the 3.2% expected. Industrial production for June rose by 4.4% from a year ago, better than the 2.7% forecast. So far, Beijing has shown reluctance to embark on greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. A Politburo meeting expected later this month could provide more details on economic policy. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
Dollar’s worst slump since November has some strategists saying a turning point is finally at hand for the greenback
Standard Bank expects ‘multi-year downtrend.’ Dollar bears can also lean on valuation measures. Dollar is overvalued in terms of purchasing power (Big Mac Index) against all major currencies except Swiss franc, the Swedish/Norwegian krona, and the Canadian dollar. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
The pund is the best performing currency (against dollar) YTD ahead of the CHF
The pound is the best performing currency (against dollar) YTD ahead of the swissie. The japanese yen is the only G10 currency to have lost value vs. dollar since the start of the year. Source: Bloomberg
There is striking divergence between social media mood (apocalyptic) and actual fund flows (and stock prices)
Source: www.zerohedge.com, JP
Wall Street is giving up on us recessoon risk as highlighted by a Wall Street Journal article
Jim Bianco Research shows consensus expectations for the coming quarters are pointing towards a very small contraction. The blue line is the June update of a survey conducted by Bloomberg of around 70 economists showing the median forecast for the next six quarters.
Humor
Source: Dogedesigner
Bitcoin continues to fly off exchanges into self-custody at an unprecedented rate
see below chart by Glassnode with orange line being the BTC balance on Exchanges. With 70% of all BTC having NOT moved in a year, despite the longest bear market on record and nearly 60% having not moved in 2 years or more, a supply crisis could be in the making (at the time the largest asset managers in the world are making progress towards the launch of Bitcoin spot etfs...). What did Economics 101 teach us about rising demand and lack of supply??? Source: Oliver L. Velez, Glassnode
