Gold rallied strongly again yesterday, disregarding entirely the significant reversal seen on Friday.
Meanwhile, the $GLD ETF is still facing significant outflows on a 2-year basis of nearly 45%. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
BREAKING: The 10-year note yield is now up 90 basis points YTD and nearing 4.70% for the first time since November 2023.
As treasury yields rise, we are seeing further pressure on stocks and other risky assets. Meanwhile, the base case now shows just 2 interest rate cuts in 2024. Higher for longer is officially back and interest rates are surging quickly. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BANK EARNINGS >>> Bank of America $BAC stock is down -4% today after reporting earnings down -18% yoy.
$BAC Bank of America Q1 FY24. Revenue -2% to $25.8B ($0.4B beat): • Net Interest income: $14.0B (-3% Y/Y). • Noninterest income $11.8B (-0% Y/Y). Net Income $6.7B (-18% Y/Y). Non-GAAP EPS: $0.83 ($0.06 beat). CET1 ratio of 11.8%. Source: App Economy Insights
BREAKING >>> Fed Chair Powell says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S COMMENTS (4/16/24): 1. Recent data "shows lack of further progress on inflation" 2. Inflation has "introduced new uncertainty" on whether the Fed can cut rates later this year 3. Fed can maintain higher rates for "as long as needed" 4. Recent data has not given greater confidence on inflation 5. Restrictive Fed policy needs more time to work 6. It will likely take longer to "regain confidence" on inflation https://lnkd.in/eMaJZNZZ Source: CNBC, The Kobeissi Letter, Trend Spider
Current treasury issuance exceeded the level seen only during the deepest Covid lockdown.
At full employment, imagine what will happen during next recession. Source: Michel A.Arouet
Longer-term inflation expectations are rising again.
The market's implied rate of inflation over the next five years has risen to the highest level in more than a year, at 2.6%, according to breakeven rates. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz
Mind the gap...
France debt to GDP ratio ihas been diverging in a meaningful way vs. Germany debt to GDP. Rating agency Fitch already cut country's credit rating from AA to AA- last year, rating agency S&P has placed France under review... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Bitcoin ‘halving’ will deal a $10bn blow to crypto miners.
Cryptocurrency’s update will slash new supply in late April. Competition for favourable electric rates is growing from AI firms. Some traders are thus betting that mining stocks will fall. Total short interest, dollar value of shares borrowed & sold by bearish traders, stood at ~$2bn. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
