U.S. equity risk premium has fallen to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Dot Com Bubble.
This is the premium that investors receive to compensate them for taking on additional risk in the stock market instead of treasuries. Source: Barchart, BofA
This chart shows the market pricing of a rate cut over the next three FOMC meetings.
March probability = 5% (was 80% at the start of the year) May probability = 29% (was 100% at the start of the year) June probability = 67% (was 100% at the start of the year) Source: Bianco Research
Extreme Greed returns to the stock market!
Source: Barchart, CNN
Reddit made its IPO filing public ahead of a planned stock market debut in March.
It also disclosed $90.8 million in losses and revenue growth of roughly 21% in 2023. REDDIT IPO STATS: Ticker: $RDDT Exchange: NYSE Deal size: $100m (we est. $750m) Mkt Cap: Est. ~$5+ billion Annual Sales: $804m Net Loss: -$91m IPO Timing: Est. mid-March
A record day on Wall Street: MAG7 stocks added over $500BN today to a new record high, second only to 11/10/22's explosion higher driven by AAPL...
And all that market cap gain was driven by a $2.1BN 'guide-up' on nvidia Q1 revenue... $NVDA stock is up +$277BN today, adding the most market cap in a single-day ever - up $277BN...That is 2 Goldmans, half a JPMorgan, or a whole Netflix or Adobe added in a day...And as goes NVDA, so goes the entire stock market with Nasdaq leading the charge (up 3%) and the S&P up over 2%. Small Caps lagged with a mere 0.75% gain... Source: www.zerohedge.com
S&P, NASDAQ 100 & DJIA closed at RECORD HIGH
Source: Bloomberg
Are Mag7 stocks in a bubble?
No doubt, in some ways they are really pricey BUT as shown by this work from Sonus Varghese on this important question, fundamentals justify to some extent their dominance. Since 2021, NVDA stock is up 130%, yet earnings are up 231%. And other Mag 7 names are similar... Source: Carson, Ryan Detrick
The chart is a log graph of $1 invested in the S&P 500 in the year 1950 by Personal Finance Club.
They listed all of the market crashes that were 15% or more. They removed the Y-axis, but it shows $1 growing to over $1,000! Note that there were many -10% corrections over the period but that only -15% and worse are listed below
