Simon White posted an excellent chart showing the potential short-term gain / long-term pain of the dual Yellen / Powell pivot
Phase 1: The Yellen Pivot. Early 2023, she decided skewing the Treasury's issuance towards bills. This bought time for risk assets, allowing Fed reserves to rise despite QT Phase 2: The Powell Pivot last week -> His dovish turn should buy more time for risk assets next year. He is literally trying to limit the growing amount of liquidity sucked from the government's ballooning interest-rate bill While this leads to short-term gain, there is a huge risk of long-term pain as these dovish operations have significantly increased long-term inflation risks and the prospect of even higher yields in the near-future. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt
That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Assets Explained Simply
by Brian Feroldi
Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder
Source: Investment Books (Dhaval)
The number of core participants at OP28 in Dubai topped a record 65,000, an increase of 80 per cent on the flagship UN climate summit’s event last year in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt
Source: FT
The US added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4, with less rigs producing more oil as technological efficiency ramps up
This supply growth has exceeded expectations and furled OPEC's attempt to put a floor under prices, at least for now. Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg
Chinese stocks made up 24.7% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index by capitalization, down from 40% three years ago
Meanwhile, India's weight has doubled... Source: Gavekal
Failures as lessons
Source: Yasin Arafeh
