The biggest bull market post-COVID has not been in the Magnificent 7 or any other equity markets; it has been in these two commodities:
1) Orange Juice: 246% 2) Uranium: 568% Source: Macrobond, Sagar Singh Setia
US bank stocks never recovered from the regional banking crisis. Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500
According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally trade starts on Tuesday
S&P 500 up 79.45% of the time since 1950. Avg performance: +2.57%. Trade combines the best consecutive 3-month span, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect. Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com, Jeffrey A. Hirsch
US Leading Indicators Tumble For 19th Straight Month
Worst Streak 'Since Lehman' on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.6% (down YoY for 16 straight months) - close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
BREAKING: Binance >>>
Department of Justice is seeking a penalty of $4 billion from Binance in order to settle a criminal investigation Crypto exchange Binance is nearing a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve a criminal investigation into alleged money laundering, bank fraud, and sanctions violations, unnamed sources told Bloomberg. If the settlement deal goes through, it would be one of the largest-ever penalties in a crypto case. Negotiations have included the possibility of criminal charges against Binance's founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ. However, as it currently stands the deal would allow the crypto exchange—the world's largest by volume—to keep operating while holding its leadership accountable. If finalized, Binance would likely pay the fine as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. This would require Binance to meet prescribed conditions like overhauling compliance programs, according to the report. Source: Decrypt, Altcoin Daily
Nvidia stock hits All-Time High ahead of earnings:
The stock has gained 24% in November, on pace for its best month since a blowout earnings report in May. Nvidia has gained 245% in 2023, pushing its market value above $1.2tn. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Fed monetary policy tightening (+525 basis points of interest rates hike + $1.15 Trillion of Fed balance sheet reduction) since 2022 has been quite brutal
2023 has been a miracle so far with headline inflation declining to 3% WITHOUT a recession and no increase in unemployment rate. But can it last? What could be the lagged effects of such a tightening? (chart courtesy of Tavi Costa)
The corporate structure of OpenAI by Chartr or how a generationally-important company like OpenAI could be plunged into such chaos is partly down to its unique corporate model
Following the company's structure from top to bottom — even with a few subsidiaries thrown in — reveals that the board of directors had ultimate control to make decisions over both the nonprofit and for-profit OpenAI entities... leaving anchor investor Microsoft blindsided by Altman’s ousting just moments before the public announcement. The company that launched ChatGPT less than a year ago claims that its structure is designed to develop artificial general intelligence that’s “safe and benefits all of humanity”, with the capped profit arm of OpenAI, first introduced in 2019, able to issue equity and raise capital to further the work of the original nonprofit that was established in 2015. Source: Chartr
