A death cross on the Euro-dollar
Watch out the key 1.05 support level. There is not safety net underneath Source: TME Activate to view larger image,
Asset class and style returns by JP Morgan
As bonds and stocks fell simultaneously, commodities were the notable outperformer in Q3, returning 4.7% and echoing the market dynamics of 2022. Source: JP Morgan
US 10y yields keep rising with most of the increase is due to the rise in real yields. US 10 year yields is now at 4.65%, 10 year real yields at 2.29%
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Japanese Yen falling to lowest levels against the U.S. Dollar since the BOJ intervened last year
150 level approaching fast 👀 Meanwhile, The Bank of Japan announced an extra bond-buying plan for this week as a global debt selloff forces policymakers into the market to curb sharp increases in yields. The BOJ will purchase extra amounts of 5-to-10-year debt on Wednesday as it strives to slow rising yields that are at the highest level in a decade. The benchmark 10-year maturity climbed to 0.775% Monday, a level last seen in 2013. Japan’s 20- and 30-year yields are at similar peaks while Treasury yields also keep moving higher. Japanese sovereign yields have risen as speculation grows the central bank will end its negative interest rate sooner rather than later, while the US Federal Reserve will also keep borrowing costs high. The BOJ has already conducted three unscheduled buying operations since late July to manage yields after adjusting policy to let them rise more. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Bloomberg on the status of US "excess pandemic savings."
Source: Bloomberg
The US is running 10% deficit with record low unemployment
Imagine the deficit in next recession, whenever it may come. Enjoy these positive real rates as long as they last. Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg
We have seen one of the fastest drops in equity positioning since early 2022. Time to think about the upside pain trade?
Source: TME, DB
Investors complacency in one chart
VIX has spent 92 sessions below 20, the longest streak since Covid, yet low implied vol regimes can last significantly longer. Source: Goldman Sachs
