Goldman expects the resumption of student loan payments, a potential temporary federal government shutdown, and reduced auto production from a potential UAW strike to slow US GDP growth in 4Q23
Source graphic: GS
This chart from Bloomberg shows the massive supply shortfall oil markets will face next quarter
OPEC expects a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day. If OPEC is correct, it would result in the biggest inventory drawdown since 2007. Voluntary production cuts by OPEC members are removing 1.3 million additional barrels of oil supply every day. Higher oil prices are back and the US reserves are at record lows. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Yesterday, the $LVMH-backed iconic sandal-maker Birkenstock filed for its NYSE IPO!
With a 250-year history and a product that has been cheaply imitated for decades, $BIRK's 20% revenue CAGR over the last eight years is very impressive. Looking at profitability, Birkenstock actually has 60% gross margins, and its EBIT margins reached as high as 29% in FY22. In 2021, Birkenstock was acquired by the private equity firm L Catterton for $4.3B. Together with Bernard Arnault's family holding company Groupe Arnault, LVMH owns 40% of the ~$30B firm. The rumored valuation of ~$8B would imply an EBIT multiple somewhere around 20x, using the company's FY22 numbers. Source: Quartr
Stock Market: "We don't need central banks anymore, we have AI"
Source: Jeffrey Kleintop
Thankfully, the US is a country where the President has very little impact on the stock market
Stocks tend to go up during most presidencies, regardless of who is in power. Key takeaway: Don't mix politics with your portfolio. Source: Charlie Bilello
German builders warn of crisis as they scrap record number of projects
According to a FT article, cancelled building projects and financial distress among landlords and builders in Germany have hit their highest levels since reunification three decades ago, intensifying the construction crisis in the EU’s biggest economy. Hit by rising interest rates, soaring costs and weaker demand, 20.7 per cent of construction companies said they had been forced to scrap a project in August, up from 18.9 per cent in the previous month, according to a survey of 500 businesses by researchers at the Ifo Institute in Munich. Source: https://lnkd.in/etkDryVY
What powered the world in 2022
Source: Elements
US CORE CPI LITTLE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED => A FED PAUSE IS LIKELY BUT NO RATE CUT ANYTIME SOON
Consensus expected a reacceleration of Headline inflation (+0.6% MoM after +0.2% in July) and a stabilisation of “core” inflation (+0.2% MoM after +0.16% in July). Key actual numbers are the following: ON A SEQUENTIAL BASIS (MoM) Headline inflation numbers are in-line with expectations (+0.6%). That is the biggest MoM since June 2022 and the second straight monthly increase in CPI...The energy index rose 5.6% in August after increasing 0.1% in July. There was a big turn-around in airline fares. They rose 4.9% after dropping 8.1% in each of the previous two months. But the gasoline index dominated with an increase of 10.6 percent in August, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month.
