Is the tech sector building a house of cards?
There are now 139 tech-related leveraged ETFs (108 long, 31 short). That is 3x more than the next largest sector (Financials). To put that in perspective: Tech now has more leveraged ETFs than Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services COMBINED. 🤯 We’ve moved past simple indexing into a world of hyper-fragmented, high-octane gambling vehicles. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Arbor Research & Trading
The January jobs report just SMASHED expectations.
Establishment Survey showed 130k new payrolls, well above 65k consensus estimate – and ahead of “whisper numbers” that were closer to 50k or even lower. This is the strongest number since April 2025... And here’s the kicker: -34,000 GOVERNMENT jobs. Private sector up. Government down ‼️ According to Household Survey, employment jumped by 528k in January, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. US Treasuries are selling off in response, with US 10y yield up 6bps. This better than expected report has caused odds of a rate cut in March to drop from around 20% to 6%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
A very important development for global markets ‼️
➡️ JGBs long-term bond yields are moving LOWER (see below the 30Y over the last month) while the Yen is firming against dollar (From nearly 158 on Sunday evening to roughly 155 this morning, it’s been a significant move in USDJPY). Takaichi landslide victory - which implies fiscal stimulus & tax cuts - hasn't trigger a bond or yen crash. Quite the contrary. Meanwhile, Japan equities continue to move upward. This is quite a compelling development overall for Japan macro & markets landscape.
🔴Hedge funds are pulling back from gold at the fastest pace in months:
Net long positions in gold dropped -23% last week, to 93,438 contracts, the lowest in 15 weeks and near the lowest in at least 12 months. This comes after gold suffered its biggest single-day plunge since 2013 on January 30. Net long positioning has now fallen -60% from the February 2025 peak of ~240,000 contracts. Hedge fund sentiment on precious metals is shifting rapidly. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
GOOGL selling 100-year debt 😯
Source: Bloomberg
🚨There is BARELY any cash on the sidelines:
Cash levels in US equity funds fell to 1.1%, an ALL-TIME LOW. This is HALF the percentage seen just 3 years ago. US equity mutual fund cash balances as a % of total assets have been in a downtrend for the last 18 years. Nominally, cash and liquid assets fell to $135 billion, the lowest since 2013. Almost every equity fund is ALL-IN on US stocks. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
🔥Gold fund inflows are going parabolic:
Cumulative inflows to gold funds have surged to +$127 billion since 2020, according to BofA. Nearly +$120 BILLION has come since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, gold and gold mining ETFs received a record $91.86 billion worth of inflows in 2025, more than 8 TIMES the total in 2024. This all comes as gold hit multiple record highs over the last 2 years, and central bank buying remains historically elevated. Source: Global Markets Investor, BofA
J.P. Morgan in 1912: "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
Source: Barchart
