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The Fed just eased its policy stance into this...
Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
US Senate approves bill to ban Russian uranium imports
The U.S. Senate approved on Tuesday legislation to bar imports of Russian uranium, as the United States continues to seek to disrupt Russia's efforts in its war against Ukraine. The Senate passed the measure by unanimous consent, meaning that no senators objected to it. The House of Representatives passed the bill in December. Uranium is used to power commercial nuclear reactors that produce electricity. The legislation would ban the imports 90 days after enactment. It contains waivers in case there were supply concerns for domestic reactors. The bill also frees up $2.7 billion passed in previous legislation to build out the domestic uranium processing industry. U.S. nuclear power plants imported around 12% of their uranium from Russia in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
16 years of Mastercard vs Visa.
Both $MA (21.6%) and $V (20.9%) have remarkable CAGRs over that period. They have been pretty correlated throughout the period, taking over the world in unison. Source: Bloomberg, KoyfinCharts
- &summary="Based on the history, with the index up 113 bps at 3:00pm, the SP500 had a 99% chance of closing green. Its failure to do so is a remarkable stumble, to say the least." Source: Bespoke&source=https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/bespoke-about-yesterdays-last-hour-of-trading-' target="_blank">
Bespoke about yesterday's last hour of trading =>
"Based on the history, with the index up 113 bps at 3:00pm, the SP500 had a 99% chance of closing green. Its failure to do so is a remarkable stumble, to say the least." Source: Bespoke
Bond Market 101: a useful way to think about bond yields by Alfonso Peccatiello.
Nominal bond yields can be thought of as the interaction between: 1️⃣ Growth expectations 2️⃣ Inflation expectations 3️⃣ Term premium
Chinese Stocks enter technical bull market after rallying 20% off the Jan 22 low
Source: Barchart
FOMC: No rate change, QT tapering in June is DOVISH (timing + amount)
Stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin are all rallying. dollar dumped In a nutshell: 1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 6th straight meeting *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25%-5.5% TARGET RANGE 2. Rate cuts not appropriate until greater confidence inflation is heading to 2% 3. Fed adds following sentence to the statement: "In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." Inflation has eased "but remains elevated" 4. Fed to slow pace of balance sheet runoff starting in June. The Fed is tapering QT by MORE than the $30BN consensus estimate, instead will taper QT by $35BN, meaning monthly redemption cap on us treasuries goes down from $60BN to $25BN (starting June 1st). This means $105BN less gross issuance needed in Q3 (i.e The Fed implicitly saying 'yields are too high'). 5. Fed maintains mortgage-backed securities redemption cap at $35 bln per month, will reinvest excess MBS principal payments into treasuries. 6. Economic activity continues to expand at solid pace, job gains have remained strong, unemployment rate has remained low. 7. Risks to achieving employment and inflation goals 'have moved toward better balance over the past year,' as opposed to 'are moving into better balance' in the March policy statement. 8. Fed Chair Powell says it is "unlikely that the next policy move will be a rate HIKE." BOTTOM-LINE: There are some hawkish comments but overall Fed QT tapering in June is DOVISH (timing + amount) -> Stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin are all rallying. dollar dumped Fed Chair Powell's press conference is dovish as well in terms of content and the tone of his remarks. As a reminder, we live at a time of fiscal dominance, i.e fiscal policy leads monetary policy.
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