Syz the moment

Investor demand for gold is going vertical Zijin Gold shares surged over 60% Tuesday as the Chinese miner’s international unit made its trading debut in Hong Kong. The company had raised nearly 25 billion Hong Kong dollars (about $3.2 billion) with shares priced at HKD$71.59 apiece, making it the world’s second-largest initial public offering after battery giant CATL’s listing earlier this year. Zijin Gold’s debut, which was delayed by a day due to the impact of Super Typhoon Ragasa on Hong Kong last week, comes at a time when the yellow metal has been notching record highs amid strong safe-haven demand, expectations of rate cuts, and global economic uncertainty. Source: CNBC, Wall Street Gold on X

Source: Ole S Hansen

Roughly one-third of SP500 companies are already restricted from repurchasing shares as of today. That figure will climb rapidly, peaking near 80–85% by mid-October. This matters because buybacks are one of the biggest sources of demand for equities. Source: StockMarket.news

Source: Bespoke

“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting, which came less than two days before the shutdown will begin in the absence of a funding deal. The Democratic participants, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, likewise said that the two sides remain far apart. “We have very large differences,” Schumer said after the meeting. But he added that he believes Trump heard Democrats’ objections “for the first time,” suggesting the face-to-face was at least partially constructive. Both sides continued to assert that the other will be to blame if the government shuts down starting Wednesday. Source: CNBC, Reuters

The effective US tariff rate on China (red) based on imports and estimated duties paid - has stabilized near 43%, which is up from 17% before Trump 2.0 and up from 5% before Trump 1.0 before that. The effective tariff rate on everyone else (excluding Canada and Mexico) is 14%. Source: Robin Brooks on X

Goldman’s data shows that when the Fed cuts outside of a recession, stocks usually surge, non-recessionary cuts have historically lifted the S&P 500 by 50%+ over two years. But if cuts arrive during a recession, the story flips. Equities struggle, with the index falling 20–30% on average. The takeaway is simple: it’s not just about cuts, it’s about the backdrop. Cuts in calm waters boost markets. Cuts in storms don’t. Source: StockMarket.news on X

Here's the key message: Source: Niko Ludwig @Collateral_com