Going into Jackson Hole, the probability of a September hike is just 20%, well below 50%, so not likely. But, as shown below, the probability of a hike in November (see below) is now 50/50
What will it be when Jay is done? Source: Jim Bianco
Chinese stocks slid in early Friday trading, an indication of entrenched investor pessimism even after authorities urged the nation’s top financial institutions to help stabilize a struggling market.
The CSI 300 Index of shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped as much as 0.7% shortly after the opening bell, extending its slump this month to 7.7% and keeping it as one of the world’s worst performers this year. A key gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms declined a maximum 1.3%. The selling came after the China Securities Regulatory Commission used a seminar Thursday with executives from the country’s pension fund, some large banks and insurers to ask them to boost support for the market. The market’s indifference isn’t necessarily a surprise, given regulators have held similar meetings regularly in the past and they have rarely had a significant impact. Source: Bloomberg
NASDAQ's bearish cross. The 21 day has now crossed the 50 day moving average.
NASDAQ futures putting in the biggest down candle in a long time and it looks like we have a new short term trend channel to watch. Source: TME
Images of Powell arriving at Jackson Hole have just surfaced. $SPY
Source: TrendSpider
The median year since 1928 has experienced a 13% intra-year drawdown in the S&P 500, making 2023 relatively mild by comparison
The 7.8% pullback in February-March is the largest thus far. Soruce: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders ???
S&P 500 (SPX) was unable to breakout yesterday the July downtrend. Now there is a potential Head & Shoulders reversal pattern (one of the most reliable patterns). Keep an eye on the neckline at 4325 for a confirmation of the H&S. Source : Bloomberg
The BRICS economic coalition of emerging markets has decided to extend membership invitations to six nations.
The BRICS alliance — which presently reunites Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — is set to invite Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join, Ramaphosa said in a speech published on the X social media platform, previously known as Twitter. The new composition of BRICS will control 80% of world oil production. The same goes for the sharp GDP growth of the new BRICS countries. It will amount to 30% of world GDP and exceed $30 trillion. Source: Sprinter, MoneyRadar
Strange day on Wall Street. Despite Nvidia blockbuster earnings the Nasdaq is in the red
Within $SPX the pockets of strength are in real estate, utilities, financials, healthcare, and consumer defensives. Low vol is outperforming high beta. There are rotations to safer parts of the market happening underneath the surface. Source: Markets Mayhem, Bloomberg
