Hard landing - Energy leads. Soft landing - energy lags. What will be the message from Mr Market?
Source chart: 3Fourteen, Warren Pies
Nearshoring / Friendshoring in action... For the 1st time since 2003, the US is importing more from Mexico than from China
Source: BofA, Bloomberg
Next FOMC rate hike probabilities:
No hike → 93% 25 bps hike → 7% Source: Game of Trades
Is oil going to $100?
U.S Crude inventories fell by WAY more than expected ( -6.3mm (-2.1mm expected) to their lowest since early December - and are well below their five-year average for this time of year as the summer driving season ends. Including the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), this is the lowest level of total crude inventories in America since 1985... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
China Budges in Fight With Bears, Sending Yuan Toward Record Low – Bloomberg
The offshore yuan weakened toward its lowest on record against the dollar, as a cut to the daily reference rate for the managed currency stoked bets China is comfortable with a gradual depreciation. China’s currency declined to about 7.36 per dollar in overseas trading, beyond the psychologically important level of 7.35 and close to the weakest since the creation of the offshore yuan market in 2010. The move came after the People’s Bank of China set its so-called fixing at a two-month low on Friday.
Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index is on track for its 8th consecutive green week, its longest winning streak in history (with data going back to 2005)
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Usage of the Fed's emergency bank funding facility jumped by $328 million last week
It now stands at a new record high of $108 billion, even as the regional bank crisis is "over." The current rate banks are paying the Fed on these loans is an alarming ~5.5%. i.e . the banks that almost collapsed are now borrowing record levels of expensive debt from the Fed. Is the US regional banks crisis really over? Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
91 is the number of trading sessions since at least a 1.5% sell off session in SPX
This length of time without a 1 day equity shock is rare ... has happened ~five times in the last 15 years. Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
