Turkey's Aggressive Rate Hike Triggers 5-Year CDS Drop!
The Turkey Central Bank has taken a significant step in its battle against inflation by implementing a supersized rate hike of 750bps, bringing rates to 25%. This move was unexpected, as the market had anticipated a more "modest" hike to 20%. Turkish fixed income assets have responded positively, with the Turkey 5-year CDS retreating below 400bps. Even Turkey's US Dollar-denominated bonds saw a boost from the news. With the Central Bank of Turkey adopting a more orthodox approach to its monetary policy, the question arises: can they successfully bring inflation back to reasonable levels? To provide context, the latest inflation figure for the month of July was at a staggering 47.8%... Source: Bloomberg
Going into Jackson Hole, the probability of a September hike is just 20%, well below 50%, so not likely. But, as shown below, the probability of a hike in November (see below) is now 50/50
What will it be when Jay is done? Source: Jim Bianco
Chinese stocks slid in early Friday trading, an indication of entrenched investor pessimism even after authorities urged the nation’s top financial institutions to help stabilize a struggling market.
The CSI 300 Index of shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped as much as 0.7% shortly after the opening bell, extending its slump this month to 7.7% and keeping it as one of the world’s worst performers this year. A key gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms declined a maximum 1.3%. The selling came after the China Securities Regulatory Commission used a seminar Thursday with executives from the country’s pension fund, some large banks and insurers to ask them to boost support for the market. The market’s indifference isn’t necessarily a surprise, given regulators have held similar meetings regularly in the past and they have rarely had a significant impact. Source: Bloomberg
NASDAQ's bearish cross. The 21 day has now crossed the 50 day moving average.
NASDAQ futures putting in the biggest down candle in a long time and it looks like we have a new short term trend channel to watch. Source: TME
Images of Powell arriving at Jackson Hole have just surfaced. $SPY
Source: TrendSpider
The median year since 1928 has experienced a 13% intra-year drawdown in the S&P 500, making 2023 relatively mild by comparison
The 7.8% pullback in February-March is the largest thus far. Soruce: Charlie Bilello
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders ???
S&P 500 (SPX) was unable to breakout yesterday the July downtrend. Now there is a potential Head & Shoulders reversal pattern (one of the most reliable patterns). Keep an eye on the neckline at 4325 for a confirmation of the H&S. Source : Bloomberg
The BRICS economic coalition of emerging markets has decided to extend membership invitations to six nations.
The BRICS alliance — which presently reunites Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — is set to invite Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join, Ramaphosa said in a speech published on the X social media platform, previously known as Twitter. The new composition of BRICS will control 80% of world oil production. The same goes for the sharp GDP growth of the new BRICS countries. It will amount to 30% of world GDP and exceed $30 trillion. Source: Sprinter, MoneyRadar
