Strange day on Wall Street. Despite Nvidia blockbuster earnings the Nasdaq is in the red
Within $SPX the pockets of strength are in real estate, utilities, financials, healthcare, and consumer defensives. Low vol is outperforming high beta. There are rotations to safer parts of the market happening underneath the surface. Source: Markets Mayhem, Bloomberg
A fresh increase in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model reinforces the reasoning behind hawkish-for-longer monetary policy, which is weighing on equities and bonds
The latest model estimate shows real 3Q GDP growth of 5.9%, up from 5.8% on Aug. 16 (it was less than 4% two weeks ago). Source: J-C Gand, Atlanta Fed
Lira Rallies as Turkey stuns with biggest rate hike in years
The central bank raises benchmark rate by 750 basis points. Turkish currency surges more than 5% against the dollar. The Monetary Policy Committee, under Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, raised the benchmark one-week repo rate to 25% from 17.5%, the sharpest increase since 2018. Most economists polled by Bloomberg predicted a hike to 20%. It’s the latest indication that Turkey’s new administration is prepared to move away from the unorthodox policies — including ultra-loose borrowing costs — that were championed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan but caused foreign traders to flee the country’s bond and stock markets en masse. Source: Bloomberg
EU Composite PMI... monetary policy works with a long and variable lag...
Source: Macrobond, Nordea
Since the COVID Crash lows in March 2020, US equity markets have more than doubled the performance of bonds
As shown below, that's the best performance ever over a similar time window, topping the strongest stocks-bonds outperformance from the tech bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Source: Bespoke, J-C Gand
Merck trying to breakout ?
Merck (MRK US) is testing resistance. Will it be able to breakout triangle pattern ? Source : Bloomberg
McDonald on major support
McDonald (MCD US) is testing for the second time the April breakout level. Keep an eye on this zone 279-282. Source : Bloomberg
If Nvidia continues like this, the chip company will soon be as big as all 40 Dax comps combined
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
