Marketable US Treasury Debt to Explode by $2.85 Trillion in the 10 Months from End of Debt Ceiling to March 31, 2024
In total, over those two quarters marketable debt will have increased by $1.59 trillion! This follows the $1.01 billion increase in Q3, and the surge in June after the debt ceiling ended. At the beginning of Q4, marketable debt outstanding was $26.04 trillion. The government will add $1.59 trillion to it, pushing it to $27.6 trillion by March 31, 2024. Source: Wolfstreet, WallStreetSilver
The SP500 $SPX continues trading inside the almost perfect channel that has been in place since July highs
So far this is just a reversal off the lower part of the channel. First resistance is around the 200 day moving average, currently at 4260ish. Note the 50/100 day cross very much in "force". Source: TME, Refinitiv
“Millions of my people will die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" - Egypt’s Prime Minister
Source: WSJ, Wall Street Silver
Beware the short squeeze... CTAs are now short $25 billion of US equities, one of the largest short positions in the 8 years...
Source: Barchart
*BREAKING* BOJ Buys More Bonds to Slow Rising Yields a Day After Tweak Central bank acts after 10-year yield touches decade high - BLOOMBERG
The Bank of Japan stepped into the bond market unexpectedly Wednesday to curb the pace of gains in sovereign yields, just a day after announcing it was loosening its grip on debt prices. The central bank’s unscheduled purchase operation statement came as the benchmark 10-year bond yield touched 0.97% — a fresh decade-high but still below the 1% cap it removed in favor of a more flexible policy setting. There was very little immediate market reaction to the move, with traders trimming one basis point off the 10-year yield before it recovered half of that. Bond futures pared losses and the yen, which is sensitive to shifts in interest rates, shed a fraction of its advance versus the dollar.
The US equity market ultra-dominance
Source: Michel A.Arouet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs
Another Uptober for Bitcoin. Largest cryptocurrency gained 28% in Oct, most since Jan2023
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Who's buying houses with record high prices and 8% mortgage rates. The answer?
Millennials are piling in to new mortgages even with the spike in rates. Since Q4 2021, Millennials have seen a ~20% increase in mortgage debt. This is the same group of people who just had student loan payments return at an average of $500/month. It's a tough time to be a Millennial... Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BofA
