Treasuries reaction to debt ceiling result will be noisy
One look at the recent price compression for 2-year Treasury futures and its clear that bond traders have a lot resting on the outcome from the debt ceiling talks.
If a deal is reached -> Fed speakers become the key for direction
No deal -> The X-date comes into play
Source: Bloomberg
Lumber futures are at their lowest levels since May 2020, down 81% from the peak in May 2021
Source: Charlie Bilello
The global asset landscape
The global asset landscape (as of 1/1/2023) by JESSE MYERS
‘Ancient’ Bitcoin Changes Wallets After 12 Years Dormant
Asleep for ages, more sats wake from years of slumber. Bitcoin bought in 2011 came back to life on Thursday, when 139 Bitcoin belonging to address 1H1Ab6 moved into a newly created Segwit address. The owner—who hodled for nearly twelve years–bought the coins in June 2011 for a bit over $2,250 dollars, only to see them grow into a staggering $3.5 million at bitcoin’s current price mark. These coins belong to what’s known as Ancient Supply, which refers to Bitcoin purchased at least 7 years ago, although some analysts use 5 years as their base date. So far this year, over 3,000 BTC from Ancient Supply has returned to life. Source: Decrypt
US MAY EMPIRE STATE FACTORY INDEX FALLS TO -31.8 (lowest since Jan.2023), EST. -3.9
The orders index also slid by the most since April 2020, hitting the lowest level since the start of the year. The shipments gauge plummeted more than 40 points. Source: Bloomberg
Is the next Commodity Super-Cycle right around the corner?
In recent years, commodity prices have reached a 50-year low relative to overall equity markets (S&P 500). Historically, lows in the ratio of commodities to equities have corresponded with the beginning of new commodity supercycles. As Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti shows in the infographic, using data from Incrementum AG and Crescat Capital LLC, the relationship between commodities and U.S. equities has varied greatly over the last five decades.
China is still the 2nd largest Bitcoin miner in the world
Source: Coinbeast
⏬ Time to consider a shift for the Central Bank of Brazil?
🇧🇷 Brazil's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is nearing the end of its normalization process, hitting a low of 4.18% in April, the lowest level since October 2020! 📊 The Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank of Brazil) took proactive steps by raising its key rates (Selic rate) early on to address inflationary pressures. Their actions have yielded positive results, bringing inflation back in line with Brazil's historical patterns. ⚖️ The potential for rate cuts is now significant, particularly if Lula appoints his preferred candidates, like Gabriel Galípolo, to influential positions within the Brazilian central bank. President Campos Neto is widely respected as one of Latin America's top central bankers. However, his focus on controlling inflation rather than stimulating Brazilian growth, coupled with his association with former President Bolsonaro, may put his position at risk. 🛑 Is Brazil on a similar trajectory as Turkey, where concerns arise over the central bank's alignment with the government? Source: Bloomberg
