Syz the moment

Source: hedgeye

Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg

This is the highest reading since March 2024! Congrats everyone, we did it ! Source: Barchart

"Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur".

🔴 Donald Trump has secured passage of his flagship tax and spending legislation after the House of Representatives approved the bill, handing the US president a political triumph six months into his second term ✅ ▶️ The 218 to 214 vote by the House on Thursday came after Democratic minority leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke against what he called the “ugly” legislation for a record eight hours and 44 minutes, in a symbolic act of defiance. ▶️The House’s approval came hours after the president quashed a rebellion among House Republicans who threatened to hold up what Trump calls his “big, beautiful bill”. ▶️ The president would sign the bill into law at 5pm on Friday in Washington, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meeting his self-imposed deadline of July 4. ▶️ The legislation extends vast tax cuts from Trump’s first administration, paid for in part by steep cuts to Medicaid, the public health insurance scheme for low-income and disabled Americans, and other social welfare programmes. ▶️ The bill will also roll back Biden-era tax credits for clean energy, while scaling up investment in the military and funds for Trump’s crackdown on immigration. Source: FT (link to the article ▶️ https://lnkd.in/errs6gtu)

‼️ The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9-month period ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. ▶️ This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period. Source: Global Markets Investor

US stocks remain expensive vs. the rest of the world but this is justified by strong profitability versus global peers Source: Blackrock thru Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

NFP Today -- "You're wrong! We do phone survey. Sometimes they answer, sometimes they don't. We show private sector created +74,000 jobs in June." Source: Jaguar Analytics