The first half year asset classes returns in one chart
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Bears on oxygen... $SPY and $QQQ hit all-time highs
Source: Stocktwits
Strategy $MSTR was up 5% yesterday.
With $BTC closing the quarter above $105k, it means that MSTR quarterly income is likely to be above $12 billion. As a consequence, Strategy has officially qualified for consideration for S&P 500 inclusion in September. Is the S&P 500 front running starting? Here's what you need to know as highlighted by My Top 5 Crypto @mytop5crypto on X 📈 1. Q2 2025 Profit Surge (~$22B+) •The company is expected to report an unrealized gain of around $22.7 billion on its BTC holdings for Q2 2025 potentially the largest quarterly profit in its history. •This gain emerges from its nearly 600,000 BTC stash, acquired at an average cost around $66K per coin. •Thanks to a recent FASB accounting change, these fair value gains are now included in net income, unlike prior quarters which showed losses despite rising Btc prices. 📊 2. S&P 500 Inclusion: Poised, But Not Guaranteed What Needs to Happen for Inclusion: •A company must: 1.Have a market cap above ~$20.5 billion. 2.Maintain sufficient float and liquidity. 3.Post positive GAAP net income in the latest quarter and cumulatively over the past four quarters. •Strategy currently satisfies the first two metrics. The missing piece was profitability, but Q2’s record gain may close that gap. •Analyst Jeff Walton estimates a 91% chance of S&P inclusion if Bitcoin holds above ~$95,240 through June 30. The company did maintain that threshold through the quarter’s end. ✅ Potential Catalysts: •Index fund inflows: If Strategy joins the S&P 500, passive funds (like SPY) must buy in pushing demand and share price higher. •Broader impact on BTC exposure: It could cement Strategy as a mainstream BTC proxy within traditional portfolios. ⚠️ Key Risks: •Highly tied to BTC: Volatility in BTC directly impacts its earnings and eligibility; a significant correction could destabilize earnings. •Unrealized gains only: Booked on paper via fair value accounting, but not actual cash unless they sell. •Margins & core biz stagnant: Its BI and analytics division still shows declining revenue and a hefty operating expense buildup.
Here are the best performing S&P 500 stocks from the first half of 2025
🥇 Palantir $PLTR +78.8%🟢 🥈 NRG Energy $NRG +78.2%🟢 🥉 Howmet $HWM +70.4%🟢 Source: yahoofinance
On April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% in 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
After one of the greatest comebacks ever, it's now up over 6% YTD and above the average year at this point in time. There is no impossible in markets. Source: Charlie Bilello
⚠️US money supply is re-surging:
US M2 money supply jumped 4.5% year-over-year in May, to a record $21.94 TRILLION. This has now surpassed the March 2022 record of $21.86 trillion For perspective, the 2000-2025 annual growth rate has been 6.3%. Chart @econovisuals thru Global Markets Investor
Don't forget, FX effect is a very important component in total returns...
As highlighted by Jeroen Blokland, while the SP500 Index is close to a record high in US dollar terms, in euro, the index is down 11% from its peak in February. The euro has reached its highest level since September 2021, which hurts euro-denominated investors. Source: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Tom Lee has been appointed chairman on the board of directors for Bitmine, a Bitcoin miner.
Today they announced a $250M private placement to implement buying Ethereum for their $ETH treasury. $BMNR, the public stock for Bitmine, is up 48% in the pre-markets. Tom Lee: “Stablecoins have proven to be the ‘ChatGPT’ of crypto, leading to rapid adoption by consumers, merchants and financial services providers,” Lee said in a statement. “Ethereum is the blockchain where the majority of stablecoin payments are transacted and thus, ETH should benefit from this growth.” Source: @amitisinvesting on X
