Syz the moment

Source: Barchart

▶️ The boss of Ryanair has threatened to cancel orders with American aircraft maker Boeing and buy from Chinese manufacturers instead if Donald Trump’s trade tariffs push up costs. ▶️ In a letter to top US lawmakers, Michael O’Leary criticised Washington’s trade war with Beijing and warned that a “material” impact on the price of aircraft could prompt his company to take its business elsewhere. ▶️ The Irishman said Ryanair could even turn to state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), a threat sure to anger Mr Trump, who has made isolating China a key aim of his trade war. ▶️ Ryanair, the largest carrier in Europe, is currently waiting on the delivery of 29 Boeing 737 Max 200 planes, out of a total order of 210. It has also ordered 150 Max 10 jets, the largest in the 737 family, for delivery from 2027 with the option of another 150 afterwards. Source: Yahoo Finance

Addressing a question on a Tokyo TV program on Friday, Japan Financial Minister Kato said the country's $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings - the highest of any foreign creditor - could be a "negotiation card" in its trade talks with Washington but "whether or not we use that card is a different decision." In other words, Japan is threatening to sell some/all of its $1.1 trillion in bonds if tariffs are imposed. NLI Research Institute said just minutes after the TV remarks, "Katsunobu Kato’s comments on US Treasuries could be interpreted as dangerously provoking the US government." He added that for the US, unstable long-term rates are a concern, and having Japan continue to hold US Treasuries is beneficial, while maintaining fiscal soundness and the dollar’s status as the reserve currency are important issues that would have positive effects in the medium to long term. Translation: chaos in the US would be painful, but it would be catastrophic for Japan. Source: www.zerohedge.com

Source: Dividendology

▶️ Bitcoin is up 25% from its April 9th low and there’s a handful of indicators that show a major bull market around the corner. Starting with the Average Miner Cost of Production. ▶️ In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production. Now, what it costs to “mine” a Bitcoin is different for every miner – machine type, electricity cost, and uptime all play a role — but the analysts @BlockwareTeam have aggregated data to create a metric called the “industry average”. ▶️ This metric has timed each of the past 6 Bitcoin bottoms: September 2024 November 2022 September 2020 March 2020 December 2018 April 2016 ▶️ This metric is signaling a bottom right now.

Source: Barchart, Bloomberg

Nonfarm Payrolls, 177K Vs. 138K Est. (prev. 228K) Unemployment Rate, 4.2% Vs. 4.2% Est. (prev. 4.2%) Hourly Earnings, 3.8% Vs. 3.9% Est. (prev. 3.8%) ▶️ The US labor market has remained resilient in April. No visible impact of the tariff announcement on employment dynamics (yet?) ▶️ The US economy added 177k new jobs in April (138k expected) after 185k in March. ▶️ February and March data were revised lower (-58k overall) but remain on a decent trend, consistent with a stable unemployment rate. ▶️ As a result, the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2% (as expected). ▶️ Wage growth slowed down slightly, to +0.2% from +0.3% (+0.3% expected). Hourly earnings are up +3.8% YoY, stable compared to the previous month. Source: Bloomberg

The stock is down -4% after-hours ➡️ For the quarter, Amazon saw earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59 on revenue of $155.7 billion. Wall Street was anticipating EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $155.1 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. The company reported EPS of $0.98 and revenue of $143.3 billion in Q1 last year. AWS revenue came in at $29.2 billion versus expectations of $29.3 billion. ➡️ For the second quarter, Amazon said it anticipates operating income of between $13 billion and $17.5 billion. Analysts were expecting $17.8 billion. The company saw operating income of $14.7 billion in Q2 2024. ➡️ The company also said it anticipates a 10-basis point impact to its Q2 sales. ➡️ Amazon shares fell more than 4% following the report. ➡️ $AMZN Amazon Q1 FY25: • Revenue +9% Y/Y to $155.7B ($0.6B beat). • Operating margin 12% (+1pp Y/Y). • EPS $1.59 ($0.23 beat). • Q2 Guidance: ~$161.5B ($0.4B beat). ☁️ AWS: • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $29.3B. • Operating margin 39% (+2pp Y/Y). Source: App Economy Insights, Yahoo Finance