CEO confidence one year out has fallen to the lowest since 2010:
Apollo's Torsten Slok
The list is out...
34% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON CHINA 20% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION
➡️ Liberation Day announcement brings US tariffs to levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley.
➡️ Rough estimate of ~1.2% drag to US growth if they persist, before any retaliatory tariffs. ➡️ ~300bln/year revenue raise. ➡️ Canada & Mexico outcome is better than expected. ➡️ Europe & Japan is worse. Source: Bob Elliott
In 2010, Forbes’ annual snapshot of the world’s billionaire population showed just 1,001 members, with Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim Helú topping the rankings with $53.5 billion
a sum that would put him in 30th position in 2025. Since then, the count has more than tripled, total collective wealth has more than quadrupled from $3.6 trillion, and the average list member’s net worth has risen from about $3.6 billion to $5.32 billion. Source: Chartr
Here’s what investors consider to be the biggest risk to markets right now 👇
Source: Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow
CHINA URGES US TO IMMEDIATELY CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES
Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate the US charges on around $3T of imported goods will now go up to 22%- the highest in a century
But remember, this is NOT a final number. Many things can happen. - China could negotiate a deal (or try to absorb the shock via more stimulus and weakening of the Yuan) - The EU could chose to retaliate - and the US escalates... - How will the rest of the world respond is very uncertain as well Expect a new high in the economic uncertainty index and lots of volatility ahead Source: chart: Bianco Research
Vietnam is by far the worst-hit market in Asia today
Index is down 5.5%, worst day in over 4 years. Volumes are nearly 300% the recent average. Source: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV
