Chinese purchases of American oil are down -90% Y/Y, while Chinese purchases of Canadian oil are up +700% Y/Y.
That’s a $20B annual loss for the United States at $60/barrel. This will help reducing the trade deficit... Source: Bloomberg, Spencer Hakimian on X, Vortexa
🔴 It took 45 years to get there, but inflation-adjusted Gold prices are back at an all-time high, surpassing the prior peak from 1980 🚀 $GOLD
Source: Charlie Bilello
Gold hit another all-time high yesterday and is now up over 27% in 2025.
On pace for its best year since 1979. Source: Charlie Bilello
🔴 A very interesting chart by Jeff Weniger on X
You're looking at the highest reading on record in 1,841 weekly stock market sentiment observations from 1990 to 2025. ▶️ The inputs: the VIX volatility index + AAII survey bearish respondents + Investors Intelligence survey respondents who expect a correction. ▶️In 10 of the last 11 fear spikes, the S&P 500 went on to gains over the next 52 weeks. Returns were often large too (+31.0%, +21.0%, and so on)...
Trade, tech and Treasuries: China holds cards in US tariff stand-off - by FT
Marta Bengoa, professor of international economics at City University of New York, said that while the US and China remained heavily interdependent in trade, this meant the ultimate balance of risk was on the US side. “US dependence on China is higher, because China can source agricultural products from elsewhere more easily than the US can replace electronics and machinery,” she said. “Beijing is already buying up soyabeans from Brazil, for example, so in the end China has a bit more leverage.”
President Trump’s reaction to what Fed Chair Powell said yesterday.
"‘termination cannot come fast enough"
🔴 BREAKING:
THE ECB CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 0.25% for seventh time in a year ▶️ The European Central Bank made yet another 25-basis-point interest rate cut on Thursday as global tariff turmoil has created widespread uncertainty and spurred fears about the euro zone’s economic growth. ▶️ A rate cut was fully anticipated by markets, with an around 94% chance of a 25-basis-point trim being priced in ahead of the decision, according to LSEG data. ▶️ The cut takes the ECB’s deposit facility rate, its key rate, to 2.25%. At its highs in mid-2023 it had been at 4%. ▶️ Tariff developments in recent weeks are widely seen by analysts and economists as a key reason for the ECB to cut interest rates. Even though many of the initial duties imposed by the U.S., as well as retaliation measures, have been put on ice or eased, fears about how they could affect economic growth have been rife. ▶️ In its policy statement, the ECB said that the “outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.” ▶️ It added, “Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions.” Source: Yahoo Finance, CNBC
Gold +23% in 2025, leading it all (ex the VIX)
Rusty, cocoa, OJ bring up the rear Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
