Notable: Coming back to yesterday's US non farm payrolls
-> The 147,000 job gains in June were almost all (over 75%) in healthcare and government. Government: +73,000 Healthcare: +39,000 The government job gains looked like this: State gov't education +40,000 State gov't non-education +7,000 Local gov't education +23,000 Local gov't non education +10,000 Federal gov't -7,000 Source: Heather Long on X
It seems the world is becoming MORE comfortable with USA sovereign risk once again...
(below US CDS) Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
UK gilt yields have retraced a significant portion of Wednesday’s sharp widening.
This follows, and is in reaction to the Prime Minister’s strong public support for Rachel Reeves in last night’s interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson. Source: Bloomberg, Mo El Erian
Key U.S. Economic Indicators Hitting New Highs
1. Stocks: all-time high 2. Home Prices: all-time high 3. Bitcoin: all-time high 4. Money Supply: all-time high 5. National Debt: all-time high 6. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" 7. Fed: expected to cut rates between 1x and 2x this year 8. The US Treasury is skewing issuance further to bills (Fiscal QE) Source. Charlie Bilello
Happy Independence Day!
Source: hedgeye
Overall 2025 fed rate cut expectations tumbled on "Big Beautiful Bill" being passed & better us payrolls
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
JUST IN 🚨: EXTREME GREED RETURNS to the Stock Market for the first time this year 🥳🤑
This is the highest reading since March 2024! Congrats everyone, we did it ! Source: Barchart
Some thoughts by Ray Dalio on the Big Beautiful Bill
"Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur".
