The Bitcoin network has 610,929x more hashing computational power than the combined total of the world’s top 500 supercomputers.
Source: Documenting Bitcoin
The German economy has shrunk for 2nd year in a row ahead of elections, driven by both cyclical & structural challenges
German GDP declined by 0.2% in 2024, following a 0.3% drop in 2023. This marks only 2nd time since 1950 that econ has contracted for 2 consecutive yrs. Germany's prospects for 2025 remain bleak. Bundesbank predicts growth of just 0.2% and warns that another contraction is even possible if US President-elect Trump follows through on his tariff threats. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Mortgage demand is collapsing:
US mortgage applications for single-family homes fell 3.7% last week, marking their 4th consecutive weekly decline. As a result, the mortgage demand index has fallen to the lowest since February 2024 and its 3rd lowest level in nearly 30 years. The index has now fallen a whopping -63% over the last 4 years. This comes as home financing costs have rapidly surged while prices remain at all-time highs. Since mid-September, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen ~110 basis points and are back above 7%. Mortgage demand is at 1990s levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, MBA Purchase index
Government spending is now half of the economy in most of the developed world....
Source: The Long View @HayekAndKeynes
US Small-Business Optimism Hits Highest Since 2018 Post Election
- Bloomberg thru Christophe Barraud on X
BlackRock is eating the world:
Assets Under Management (AUM) grew by 15% to hit a fresh ATH at $11.55tn. BlackRock has raised $641bn in investor funds in 2024. Tally includes $390bn flowing into its ETF business overall, $226bn into equity funds, and $164bn into fixed-income. Source Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Good news are coming... while US Q4 earnings season is off to a strong start thanks to banks beating estimates, US inflation numbers came in somewhat cooler than expected:
Core CPI slows to 3.2% in December from 3.3% in November. Analysts had expected the rate to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Overall CPI is unchanged at 2.9% as forecasted. Headline CPI inflation is up for 3 straight months, but core inflation is falling again. It seems enough to please investors: S&P 500 futures are surging over +85 points - the equivalent of a $750B market cap gain - as 10y US bond yields are tumbling by 10 basis points. The dollar is easing, gold is shining and cryptos is surging with bitcoin back to $99K. Alles gut... Source: Bloomberg
Linde Price Action on Support Zone
Linde (LIN US) remains in a very bullish trend overall. The stock has seen a recent consolidation (-15%) from its all-time highs, but we’re now witnessing a strong rebound from the support level at 413. Source: Bloomberg
