Goldman Sachs raises U.S. Recession odds to 35%
Source: Barchart
European tech
Source: The Economist
“‘The dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power over the last century’ is the most misleading claim in all of finance,” says Riholtz in his new book.
As long as spend or you invest (instead of sitting on cash), you should be ok. Source: Eric Balchunas on X
In Trump's first term, there was no discernible rise in inflation or drag on growth. Why?
👉 The answer lies in what economists call "currency offset." The dollar moved up by almost the exact amount as the tariffs did. After-tariff USD import prices didn't move. ➡️ Could we see something similar during Trump 2nd term? As mentioned by Lawrence McDonald on X, the context is different this time: Tariffs and inflation during Trump's first term - were after a long period of - a) global austerity, b) secular stagnation and c) Brexit's impact on the global economy. Tariffs and Inflation during Trump's 2nd term are taking place after a $16T fiscal and monetary overdosing... Source. Lawrence McDonald on X, Stephen Miran
DAX Index on Critical Support Zone
The DAX Index remains in a very strong bullish trend! After a recent 5% consolidation, the index is back at the major support zone between 22,190-22,320. Keep an eye on the price action for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
Russell 2000 Index Back on Major Support Zone
After a 20% consolidation since the November high, the Russell 2000 Index is back on the major swing support zone between 1993-2058. It’s also revisiting the breakout level from the April 2022 - December 2023 consolidation. Keep an eye on the price action at these levels for potential opportunities. Source: Bloomberg
Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments
Source: Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart, Bloomberg
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 2.8% in February & remains well above their 2% target that has yet to be achieved.
Here are the details 👇 YoY Growth: PCE (Feb), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.5%) Core PCE, 2.8% Vs. 2.7% Est. (prev. 2.6%) MoM Growth: PCE (Feb), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.4% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) ➡️ The market is expecting the Fed to hold rates steady again at their next meeting on May 7 (at 4.25-4.50%). Source: Charlie Bilello
