Is the US stock market severely mispriced?
Typically, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is well above the US 30y real yield. That has changed. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
French CPI a little hotter than expected, rising 50bp in August
This was all due to energy (including higher regulated prices) and the end of the summer sales, but services inflation is still easing driven by transports and "other services". FRENCH CPI YOY NSA PRELIM ACTUAL 4.8% (FORECAST 4.6%, PREVIOUS 4.3%) FRENCH CPI MOM NSA PRELIM ACTUAL 1% (FORECAST 0.8%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) FRENCH HICP MOM PRELIM ACTUAL 1.1% (FORECAST 1%, PREVIOUS 0.0%) FRENCH CONSUMER SPENDING MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.9%) Source: Bloomberg
UBS Group AG posted a $29 billion second-quarter profit in first results since Credit Suisse takeover.
This is the biggest-ever quarterly profit for a bank in the second quarter as a result of its emergency takeover of Credit Suisse, and confirmed that it would fully integrate the local business of its former rival by next year. Key takeaways: - UBS said the result primarily reflected $28.93 billion in negative goodwill on the Credit Suisse acquisition (i.e this huge profit is due to a huge one-off gain that reflects how the acquisition costs were far below Credit Suisse's value). Underlying profit before tax, which excludes negative goodwill, integration-related expenses and acquisition costs, came in at $1.1 billion - The accounting gain for the quarter eclipses JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $14.3 billion profit in the first quarter of 2021, the modern record for US and European lenders; - Analysts had projected a net profit of $12.8 billion for the three months to the end of June, according to a Reuters poll. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC Source illustration: Sonntagzeitung / Melk Thalmann
The "maddest macro chart I have seen for many years." by Albert Edwards (SocGen)
"The US corporate sector is a massive net borrower. Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy. BUT NOT THIS TIME. Corporate net interest payments have instead collapsed. What on earth is going on?" asked Edwards "This chart not only explain the resilience of corporate profits, but is a key reason why this recession has been delayed – especially as companies in aggregate are now a net beneficiary of higher rates (NB: this is mainly explained by mega-caps as most of the other companies are in big trouble). Source: SocGen, www.zerohedge.com
A soft landing of the US economy is indeed a consensus view but it is starting to gain attraction following the lates job market reports (JOLTs, ADP, et.c)
Source: Hedgeye
The most profitable companies in the world
Source: InvestyWise
Where do 8 billion people live?
Source: statsofindia.in
The percentage of US workers quitting their jobs has moved down to 2.3%, the fewest since January 2021
The 1.5 job openings per unemployed person in the US is lowest since September 2021. Labor market continues to loosen... Source: Charlie Bilello
