Jevon-paradox Token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw).
AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage. It's just starting. Source: a16z, Jim Bianco
ONLY 10% OF AMERICANS ARE NOW KEEPING THE ENTIRE US ECONOMY FROM CRASHING.
28 million people are driving 49% of everything Americans spend. The other 221 million account for just 37%. This is the highest concentration of consumer spending ever recorded in US history. Every 1% rise in the stock market increases consumer spending by 0.05%. Markets are up double digits this year. The entire consumer economy is now a direct function of where the S&P 500 closes every day. The bottom 80% have nothing left to contribute. National household debt just crossed $18 trillion. Credit card balances hit a record $1.2 trillion as lower income households borrow just to cover basic expenses against prices that are 25% higher than 2020. Deloitte projects that a 10% stock market correction would cause real consumer spending growth to fall to just 0.2% in 2027 and drop 1% in 2028. The 28 million people keeping this economy running are fully invested in the stock market. The US economy has never been this dependent on this few people. And those people have never been this dependent on the stock market. Source: Bull Theory, FT
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks fall to 2-year low
Source: zerohedge
BTC ETFs have seen massive outflows (10 of last 11 days)...
Source: zerohedge
Bloomberg's US Macro Surprise data slumped yesterday with headline and core PCE printing below expectations on a MoM basis
Initial jobless claims a little weaker than expected, GDP disappointing, personal consumption weak (income unch), core capital goods orders declined, and a plunge in new home sales... Source: zerohedge
Space ETF assets
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Nasdaq at 875 trading days after the release of Netscape on 12/19/94: +144.55%.
Nasdaq at 875 trading days after the release of ChatGPT on 11/30/22: +144.77%. Past performance is no guarantee of future results! Source: Bespoke
Forward P/E Ratios...
Costco $COST: 45 Walmart $WMT: 36 Nvidia $NVDA: 17 Which one is the bubble? Source: Charlie Bilello
