😱 The shocking chart of the day: US PUBLIC DEBT GROWTH HAS BEEN MASSIVE 😱
In 2008, the US federal debt was $9.4 trillion while the US GDP was $14.7T with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 64%. Now, the public debt is $35.7 TRILLION (Total US debt added another $345 billion between Sept 27 and October 1st...) and the US GDP is $29.0 TRILLION with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122%... What is the pain thresold for the bond market ??? Source: Global Markets Investor, FRED
🚨42% OF US SMALL-CAP COMPANIES ARE UNPROFITABLE🚨
This is in line with the 2009 Great Financial Crisis levels. Notably, the share was higher only in 2020 and 2021. Russell 2000 firms also have $832 billion of debt. More rate cuts may help these zombie companies to stay alive. Source: Apollo, Global Markets Investor
NEARLY 200 MISSILES WERE LAUNCHED INTO ISRAEL FROM IRAN, ISRAELI ARMY RADIO SAYS
ISRAELI OFFICIAL SAYS RESPONSE TOWARDS IRAN ‘WILL BE HARSH’: KANN Bomb alarm sirens across the entire country (map). Oil spikes +4% Gold +1% VIX skyrockets +20% S&P 500 down 0.9% Source: Global Markets Investor on X
Happy Q4...
sp500 heatmap October 1st Source: @bremarkets on X
This time is different…
Historically, Fed rate cuts triggered market rallies led by valuation expansion. But this time, it seems that markets front-loaded the Fed by accumulating us stocks AHEAD of the Fed decision. Bottom-line: Current market valuation is now on the high side vs. other instances in history when the Fed cut rates. This should limit the amplitude of the current bull equity Source: David Marlin
BREAKING: Oil prices surge back above $70/barrel as investors begin pricing-in potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
We now have a port strike, rising oil prices, aggressive Fed rate cuts and a china monetary + fiscal package. Could this combination trigger a second wave of inflation?
😱 The shocking chart of the day: a 128% INTRADAY increase for a HK-listed ETF !!!
The China equities rally look unstoppable... 😱 The Hang Seng Tech Index expanded its gains to 9%, while the Hang Seng Index surged by 6%. The FTSE China A50 Index futures rose by over 8%. As shown on the chart below, the HK-listed Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, surged dramatically, with an intraday increase of 128%. In the previous trading day, it closed with a rise of over 21%. Source: CN Wire
According to Polymarket, probability of having an Israel military response against Iran by Friday is <50% as of writin
Source: Polymarket, C.Barraud
