If you exclude $NVDA from the Mag 7, it would be trailing the S&P 500 YTD.
Source: Koyfin
Bullish sentiment on US equities is through the roof:
In May, 48.2% of Americans anticipated stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, according to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey. This is the 3rd highest reading in history, only below the January 2018 and March 2024 surveys. Over just 2 years, this share has nearly doubled as stocks recovered from the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has rallied a massive 48% since the October 2022 low. Stock market sentiment is incredibly strong. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
The S&P 500 just posted its best weekly streak in 35 years.
The index has increased in 23 of the last 30 weeks, a joint record since 1989, according to Deutsche Bank. It could thus be that some consolidation is due... Source chart: DB, The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks
Unrealized losses in the U.S. Banking System increased to $517 billion in Q1 Source: Barchart, BofA
Nvidia has added the size of LVMH in market cap since last week...
Source: Quartr
German 10y yields jump to 2.64%, highest since Nov, following a somewhat hotter inflation report.
German Harmonized CPI rose to 2.8% in May YoY from 2.4% in Apr, above the 2.7% median estimate in a BBG poll of economists. German national CPI rose to 2.4% from 2.2% as expected. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Shocking stat of the day: US net interest payments as a share of GDP are set to reach 3.9% by 2034, the highest in history.
This exceeds the all-time record percentage seen in the 1990s as well as World War II levels. Net interest is expected to account for 75% of the budget deficit increase over the next decade, according to the CBO. All as interest expense has already DOUBLED in just 3 years and now costs the US ~$2 billion per day. The worst part? This project assumes no recession hits within the next 10 years. What happens if we enter a recession? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Germany's inflation rose to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in April while Core CPI remains unchanged at 3%.
Uptick was driven by base effects related to the introduction of a cheap public-transportation ticket (so-called 49€ ticket), which pushed prices down 12 months ago. But also food price inflation quickened (for a 2nd month). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
