The market now expects the ECB to raise its key rate at the highest level ever!
As reflected in the European swap market, market participants expect the ECB to raise its key interest rates to a level never before seen. The terminal rate is expected to be close to 4%, up from 3.75% in the early 2000s. Interestingly, for the first time in this cycle, the markets believe that the terminal rate will be reached in 2024 (and not in 2023). Higher rates for longer? Source: Bloomberg.
The average price of a new home sold in the US is down 16% from its peak last July
After the last housing bubble peak the average new home price fell 25% nationally. Source: Charlie Bilello
Eurozone M1 money supply YoY turned negative for 1st time since start of the statistic
The annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1 decreased to -0.7% in January 2023 from 0.6% in Dececember 2022, while M3 money supply slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% in December. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A big test ahead for the S&P 500
S&P 500's uptrend that started last fall continues even with the index losing 2.6% this month. But with the S&P 500 closing below the 50 day moving average and trapped in a range just above its 200 day moving average, this week will be critical. Source: Bloomberg
Global bonds have officially erased all YTD gains
Source: Bloomberg
Germany is still far from its energy transition goals
Germany must invest $1tn in expansion of renewable energy by 2030 in order to cover 80% of its electricity needs from renewable sources by then. Germany needs 43 soccer fields of solar power every day, boldest project since WWII. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
A 60/40 Portfolio remains 14% below its all-time high
A 60/40 Portfolio of US stocks/bonds is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its all-time high. This is the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the aftermath of the dot-com bubble (43 months). Source: Charlie Bilello
The yield on German 2-year bonds reached 3% for the first time since 2008!
While yesterday the Eurozone core CPI reached a new record of 5.3%, the German 2-year bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 2008! The ECB still has a lot of work (more than currently expected?) to do in tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, especially considering the minor impact (for now) of the Fed's monetary policy tightening on US inflation and the economy. Source: Bloomberg
