Eurozone inflation for January tops earlier estimate
Eurozone CPI rose 8.6% in Jan YoY, up from 8.5% increase prev estimated. Core CPI, which strips out volatile categories, was 5.3%, up from preliminary estimate of 5.2% and fresh ATH. Core gives ECB hawks new fuel for more hikes.
Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising
This is the chart that is rattling the markets: Fed Terminal Rate has climbed 50bps year-to-date and keeps rising!
German Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January
Supermarket inflation remains elevated in Gernmany. Food CPI jumped 20.2% YoY in January. Following the rebalancing of the basket of goods by German Statistics Office, food now has a higher weight in inflation rate. Share rose by 2ppts from 8.5% to 10.5%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Second largest daily outflow for a US high yield bond ETF!
One of the largest U.S. high-yield bond ETFs had a daily outflow of $1 billion (over 10% of assets under management) yesterday. The only time we've seen it was in June 2020. Capitulation? Source: Bloomberg
Global Bonds Are Set to Erase 2023 Gains as Pivot Hopes Wither
Source: Bloomberg
Japan’s Key Yield Rises Above 0.5% BOJ Ceiling for Second Day
Source: Bloomberg
Hedge funds net exposure is moving from Value to Growth sectors
(note that it is as of December 31st, 2022 so it is lagging the actual net exposure) Source: Goldman Sachs
U.S. Treasury bond performance in 2023 turns negative!
For the first time in 2023, the year-to-date performance of U.S. Treasuries has turned negative (-0.14%). Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury yield curve shifted upward by about 15 basis points as the index has lost 2.6% in February so far. This sharp reversal is due to a stronger than expected resilience in the U.S. economy, which could trigger further tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Source: Bloomberg
