US equities: market internals still look bullish
We continue to see new highs > new lows (27 days in a row is longest stretch since mid-2021) and that is bull market behavior. Source: Willie Delwiche
A Warren Buffet styled "Investment checklist"
Source: Brian Feroldi
A stronger than expected US GDP in Q1 ?
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on February 7, up from 0.7 percent on February 1 - source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
China reopens borders with Hong Kong
Source: Bloomberg
A reality check on Europe's energy shock: the French trade deficit
France's trade deficit in Dec. '22 was the widest in two decades when compared to the same month in previous years, a crude way to adjust for seasonality. Europe's energy shock is large and ongoing. Source: Robin Brooks
A new cycle high for U.S. terminal rate expectation
The market has pushed its expectations for the U.S. terminal rate higher (and longer). Indeed, it now appears that it will end slightly above 5% and in July 2023 (one month later than previously expected). The resilience of the U.S. economy (driven by a strong labor market) continues to drive terminal rate expectations higher and for a longer period of time. Source: Bloomberg
US existing home sales have been falling faster today than they did during the Great Financial Crisis
Source: Morgan Stanley
MSCI China relative multiples are the highest since 2011
Either earnings improve for Chinese companies or the MSCI China Index now looks pretty expensive vs rest of world. Source: Citigroup, Sofia Horta e Costa
