Syz the moment

💡 Today, the Bank of England (BOE) is convening for its highly anticipated meeting, and we're closely monitoring it for potential shifts in their monetary policy tone. The BOE's impending Monetary Policy Committee decision promises to be intriguing, with current expectations leaning towards maintaining the benchmark rate at 5.25%. 📉 Indeed, a significant twist in the narrative has occurred. The UK's inflation outlook has undergone a substantial revision, with current projections indicating a return to the 2% inflation target by the summer of 2024 – a whole year earlier than previously anticipated. This could have far-reaching implications. 📊 Adding to the intrigue is the possibility of a single vote in favor of a rate cut and a potential softening of the BOE's previous tightening stance. While the risk remains that the BOE might stick to its hawkish position, the evolving economic landscape could set the stage for an earlier easing cycle, potentially commencing as soon as June. 💬 The shifting dynamics of inflation and the subsequent responses by central banks are pivotal indicators for market movements. Fixed income investments may see considerable benefits from these potential developments.

Google is under strong pressure but trend remains bullish. Stock is trying to find some support. 1st support is around 139-140 and major zone to keep an eye on is 135-137. Source : Bloomberg

Procter & Gamble remains in a bullish trend. Keep an eye at these levels, is this the breakout ? Source : Bloomberg

Supporters of the energy transition are celebrating, but geopolitics may be more important than what meets the eye. In a nutshell, Saudi Arabia manages together with Russia a very complex political and economic arrangement within the OPEC+ alliance. Riyad and Moscow are coordinating with other producers around the world in order to revive the global oil market, prevent production surplus and keep oil prices higher than non-OPEC producers' policies would. Source: Francesco Sassi

Novartis is under pressure but remains in a bullish trend. If your are looking for support, keep an eye at 83-86 strong support zone. Source : Bloomberg

Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris criticized delays in enacting a long-awaited devaluation of the pound, suggesting authorities match the spiraling black market rate to end the nation’s chronic foreign-currency shortage. Postponing reforms is “a disaster that will increase the extent of the critical situation we are in,” Sawiris said in an Arabic-language post on social media platform X. Egypt’s pound has plunged on the parallel market to 68-70 per dollar in recent days, leaving it more than 50% weaker than the official rate of about 30.9. Source: Bloomberg, Ziad M Daoud

The company has stated that they are looking to cut $1 billion of annual costs. UPS stock was down 6% after the announcement. Over the last 3 months, layoffs have quickly spread from technology companies to just about every industry. Shipping is now the latest industry to feel the pain. Note that UPS announcement takes place 6 months after the famous 170k salary package announcement by UPS who was at the time desperate to find new drivers. Time flies... Source: The New York Times, The Kobeissi Letter

Odds of a rate cut this week are down to 2% and odds of a rate cut in March are down to ~40%. This is the lowest probability of a March rate cut since November 2023. Still, futures are pricing-in a base case of 6 rate cuts for a total of 150 bps in 2024. - All eyes will be on Fed guidance on June 30zh Source: The Kobeissi Letter