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The housing boom is finally over in Germany
The housing boom is finally over in Germany as prices for residential properties drop for the first time since GFC in 2009. Europace German House Price Index dropped 0.8% in 2022 w/existing homes down 6%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
So far in January, BoJ has bought 13 trillion Yen in JGBs to hold its 0.5% cap on 10-year yield. That's almost 26 trillion if we extrapolate this pace to the rest of the month. Unsustainable.
Time is rapidly running out for BoJ yield curve control. Source: Robin Brooks
Close to $11T US Treasury bonds maturing in the next 24 months need to be refinanced
Current Funding Rate of these bonds hovers between1.6% to 1.9% The new one ranges between 3.4% and 4.6%. The debt service as a % of the US budget will explode from 8% to nearly 17%... Source: Lawrence McDonald, Manhattan Institute
The lessons from 2001-2004
We’re now in 2001 with respect to currently unprofitable companies. The market prices of all companies that were unprofitable in 2001 didn't make any progress in the 3 years that followed. Those that turned profitable by 2004 were a ~3x on average. Source: Value investigator
The S&P 500 closed above its 200d MA for the 5th time since the start of the 2022 bear market
Source: Yuriy Matso
Only 10% of US equity funds survived and outperformed the S&P 500 since 1992
Source: Lipper, S&P Dow Jones
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