Equities have left central bank balance-sheet behind...
Source: UBS, TME
U.S. Banks are facing unrealized losses of roughly $685 billion (updated as of Q3).
This problem isn’t going away any time soon until the Federal Reserve begins cutting. New York Community Bancorp $NYCB might be the next victim. Source: Barchart
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK SHARES WERE DOWN AS MUCH AS 40% ON WEDNESDAY.
THE BANK POSTED A SURPRISE LOSS FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER AND ALSO CUT ITS DIVIDEND. THIS IS THE SAME BANK WHO BOUGHT SIGNATURE BANK LAST YEAR AFTER IT COLLAPSED. NOTE IT HAS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE (CRE) LOAN EXPOSURE TO THE TUNE OF 71% OF ITS ENTIRE LOAN BOOK.
Germany troubles in one chart. Retail sales have fallen by 4.4% in Dec YoY.
This means that even Christmas sales fell through. Germans have gone on a buyers' strike since the outbreak of inflation & have even cut back on gifts for children during the Christmas season. This also explains why Germany has some of the toughest competition in the retail sector and the lowest profit margins there. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The average price of a used Tesla has declined 18 months in a row
Moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $34,883 today (-49%). $TSLA Source: Charlie Bilello
Greece is the third country in Europe, after italy and spain, to see energy security affected by Houthi attacks to tankers in the Red Sea.
At least 3 Qatari LNG cargoes have been cancelled over the last days, impacting the Greek prospects of becoming a gas hub in europe. Source: Francesco Sassi
This isn't a crypto or a meme stock. It's New York Community Bank $NYCB, which acquired failed Signature Bank assets last year, has fallen over over 40% today.
The price of shares in New York Community Bancorp - the regional bank that purchased deposits from Signature Bank last year - crashed today, below SVB crisis lows, after reporting a surprise loss for the fourth quarter and a cut to its dividend. As Bloomberg reports, the bank lowered its quarterly payout to shareholders to 5 cents. Analysts had predicted the dividend would remain at 17 cents. A worsening credit outlook contributed to the unexpected loss, as the company boosted its loan-loss provision more than expected. Source: www.zerohedge.com
FED: DON'T SEE CUTS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENT INFLATION NEARING 2%
In a nutshell · The FOMC voted unanimously to leave benchmark rate unchanged - as expected - in target range of 5.25%-5.5% for fourth straight meeting while making significant changes to statement · However, the statement was very much more hawkish than expected, as The Fed pushed back aggressively against the dovish market stance. Market reaction: -> The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 7 basis points to 3.98%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down about 8 basis points at 4.27% -> US equity indices are retreating. Gold is paring gains, dollar is recovering. -> Odds of a March Fed rate cut plummet from 47% to 31% after the Fed interest rate decision. Our take: The U.S. economy enters 2024 from a position of strength. For instance, the S&P PMI came in higher than expected last week. Q4 GDP growth in the U.S. came in at 3.3% annualized, well above expectations of 2.0% growth. And while disinflation is firmly in place, the inflation rate remains above the central bank target. There is thus no reason for the Fed to rush. Nevertheless, we still believe they will have to cut rates at some point for the following reasons: 1/ Keeping rates too high for too long can have long-lasting effects on US economic growth 2/ Keeping rates steady while inflation is coming down imply rising real rates. Keeping positive real rates for too long at a time when Uncle Sam is facing $33T debt and surging interest rates payments is unsustainable
