Should the FED wait for a financial accident to happen BEFORE cutting interest rates?
Source chart: Mac10
As highlighted by Otavio (Tavi) Costa, the need for the FED to cut interest rates is not driven just by labor data and inflation.
As shown on the chart below, the costs of servicing Federal debt in the US is soaring more than in any other country. Not just once, not twice, or even three times — multiple rate cuts would be needed to bring US interest payments as a percentage of GDP in line with the rest of the world. This is what financial repression is about. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
The recessionary trade was in full effect yesterday following weak ISM data.
Cyclicals underperformed Defensives by 429bps, one of the worst days in the last 16+ years. The only other comparable days were during the March 2020 Covid crash and 2008 GFC. $SPY $QQQ $IWM Source: David Marlin, Bloomberg
Almost all Japanese stock gains for 2024 wiped out in 3 days...
Today was an absolute chaos in Japan as stocks plummeted more than 6%, the largest decline in 8 years, and experienced 2 circuit breakers during the session... What will the BOJ save first? The Yen, Japanese stocks or the JGBs (of which they already own 50%)? Source: www.zerohedge.com
Amazon reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the second quarter on Thursday and issued a disappointing forecast for the current period.
The shares slid as much as 6% in extended trading. Here's how $AMZN Amazon did in Q2 FY24: • Revenue +10% Y/Y to $148B ($0.8B miss). • Operating margin 10% (+4pp Y/Y). • FCF $53B TTM. ☁️ AWS: • Revenue +19% Y/Y to $26.3B. • Operating margin 36% (+11pp Y/Y). Q3 FY24 Guidance: • Revenue ~$154-$158.5B ($158.3B expected).
BREAKING >>> Intel stock, $INTC, crashed over 12% after-hours yesterday evening after reporting Q2 2024 earnings and suspending their dividend.
They reported EPS of $0.02, below expectations of $0.10, on revenue of $12.8 billion, below expectations of $12.9 billion. Intel also announced that they will be laying off 15,000 of their employees. A difficult quarter for Intel. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Apple reported fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations, with overall revenue rising 5%. iPhone, iPad and Services revenue all beat analyst expectations.
Apple's most important business remains the iPhone, which accounted for about 46% of the company's total sales during the quarter. Apple expects similar overall revenue growth in the current quarter, company finance chief Luca Maestri said on a call with analysts. Apple also expects Services to grow at about the same rate as the previous three quarters, which was about 14%. The company sees operating expenditures between $14.2 billion and $14.4 billion in the current quarter, Maestri added, with gross margin of between 45.5% and 46.5%. Apple shares were flat in extended trading. Here's how $AAPL Apple did in Q3 FY24 (June quarter): 💳 Services +14% Y/Y to $24.2B. 📱 Products +2% Y/Y to $61.6B. • Revenue +5% Y/Y to $85.8B ($1.4B beat). • Operating margin 30% (+1pp Y/Y). • EPS $1.40 ($0.06 beat). Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
BREAKING: The 10-Year Note Yield has dropped below 4.00% for the first time since February 2024.
This comes after the July Fed meeting and ISM manufacturing data came in weaker than expected. Markets expect the first Fed rate cut since March 2020 to come at their next meeting, in September 2024. Over the last week, the 10-Year Note Yield is now down over 30 basis points. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
