Syz the moment

As the Citi Inflation Surprise Index for emerging markets (EM) turned negative for the first time since July 2020, the bond market appears to be hoping for a pivot from EM central banks (CBs). The end of policy tightening in EM is already visible, as the pace and magnitude of rate hikes by EM CBs has begun to slow. Source: Topdown charts.

Nasdaq futures had started the year on a strong footing, but are losing steam near the 200-day moving average which has been a tough barrier to cleanly break in the past year.

Simple look at blended 12m estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share … +7.5% from start of 2022 into peak (June 2022); -4.5% since peak. Source: Bloomberg, Liz Ann Sonders

US workers who switched jobs received pay increases of 7.7% over the last year vs. 5.5% for those who stayed at their jobs. With data going back to 1997, this is the widest gap we've ever seen. Source: Charlie Bilello

Starting by January 27, buybacks will be back into the market, higher than before. Source: Alessio Urban, Goldman Sachs

M2 continues its record collapse: down 5.4% over the final 3 months of 2022 & down 1.3% over the past year. Source: Willie Delwiche

A number of materials play a critical role in the expansion of next generation technologies—potentially leading to a surge in demand and increased market values. Source: Visual Capitalsit, Global X

The world’s central banks bought 673 metric tons in one month, and in the third quarter, the figure reached 400 metric tons. This is interesting because the flow from central banks since 2020 had been eminently net sales. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg