Should you sell your Apple because Buffet has been selling 50% of his Apple ($AAPL) shares?
Well, think twice. Buffett sold his entire Mcdonalds ($MCD) stock in 1998. Since then, MCD has increased +1,413%, outperforming Berkshire Hathaways returns. Buffett sold his entire Costco #($COST) stake in June 2020. Since then, COST has gained +190%, outperforming Berkshire as well. Buffett also sold all his stakes in airline stocks like Delta Airlines ($DAL) in March 2020. Since then, DAL is up +82% as well Lesson? Don't copy paste what other investors are doing, no matter how great they are. Source: Adam Khoo on X
The signal for Market Bottom?
A Follow Through Day (FTD) is a concept developed by William J. O’Neil to identify an important change in general market direction, from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend. Follow Through Days occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and on greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a FTD, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn’t make a new low. Follow Through Day Characteristics: Characteristics of a follow-through day include an index closing at least 1.7 – 2% higher on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally. Day 1 of an attempted rally is the first up day after a new low. Source: True market Leader @TmarketL, TraderLion
The Yen Carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net Yen shorts being barely covered...
Source: Global_Macro @Marcomadness2
The Goldman US panic index is calculated as a rolling percentile of four equity volatility metrics
It spiked to one of the highest levels in two years in recent sessions... Source: Jason Goepfert on X
self-transformation: the ultimate superpower
Source: Compounding Quality
What a chart...
Source. Michel.A Arouet, Ht @MacroKova, Convera, Macrobond
Even as volatility is picking up, the bull market could stay intact.
Going back to 1941, whenever the S&P 500 rose by 10% or more in the first six months of the year, it has risen by 7% on average in the second half. And the percentage of time that returns were positive in the second half of the year was almost 80% vs. 66% for any given period. The one caveat is that pullbacks in the second half tend to be deeper than the first half, averaging 9%. Source: Edward Jones, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is down 5.7% from its closing high on July 16, the largest drawdown of the year.
The index is still up 13% year-to-date including dividends. No risk, no reward. $SPX Source. Charlie Bilello
