Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
📢 One out of every 15 Americans is a millionaire according to a UBS Wealth Report
Source: UBS, Barchart
$MSFT trades at quite a large premium to the NASDAQ 100. Will the premium shrink after yesterday's earnings release?
Source: Bloomberg
$AMD Q2 2024: "Our AI business continued accelerating and we are well positioned to deliver strong revenue growth in the second half of the year" - Lisa Su, CEO
Details by Quartr: Revenue +9% *Data Center +115% *Client +49% *Gaming -59% *Embedded -41% Gross Profit +17% *marg. 49% (46%) EBIT +1445% *marg. 5% (0) EPS +700%
BREAKING: The Magnificent 7 stocks have now erased a combined $2.6 TRILLION of market cap over the last 20 days.
That's an average of $125 billion of market cap PER DAY for 20 days sight. Nvidia, $NVDA, alone has erased over $1 trillion in market cap since its high seen one month ago. In other words, the Magnificent7 have lost as much value as Nvidia's ENTIRE current market cap in 20 days. That's also $200 billion more than every stock in Germany's stock market combined. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A tough technical picture for Microsoft $MSFT. This is the first 200-Day SMA test since March 2023.
Source: Trendspider
Microsoft shares fell 7% in extended trading on Tuesday as investors looked past better-than-expected earnings and revenue and focused instead on disappointing cloud results.
Here’s how the company did, compared with the LSEG consensus: -> Earnings per share: $2.95 vs. $2.93 expected -> Revenue: $64.73 billion vs. $64.39 billion expected Microsoft’s revenue increased 15% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on June 30, according to a statement. Net income, at $22.04 billion, was up from $20.08 billion, or $2.69 per share, in the year-ago quarter. The company’s top segment, Intelligent Cloud, generated $28.52 billion in revenue. It includes the Azure public cloud, Windows Server, Nuance and GitHub. The total was up about 19% and below the $28.68 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. GitHub’s revenue is now at an annual run rate exceeding $2 billion, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on a conference call with analysts. Revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew 29% during the quarter. Analysts polled by CNBC and StreetAccount had expected 31% growth. Microsoft’s Azure number hadn’t fallen short of consensus since 2022. Microsoft doesn’t disclose revenue from the category in dollars. In a nutshell: $MSFT Microsoft Q4 FY24 (ending in June): ☁️ Azure +30% Y/Y fx neutral (vs. 31% in Q3). • Revenue +15% Y/Y to $64.7B ($0.3B beat). • Gross margin 70% (-1pp Y/Y) • Operating margin 43% (flat Y/Y). • EPS $2.95 ($0.02 beat). Source: CNBC, App Economy Insights
Total US Federal debt has officially hit $35 trillion for the first time in history.
Since 2020, the US has now added ~$12 TRILLION in Federal debt. In other words, the US has added an average of ~$280 BILLION of Federal debt EVERY MONTH since January 2020. This means that the US now has ~$105,000 in Federal debt for every person living in the country. All while deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at World War 2 levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
